气象科技进展2024，Vol.14Issue(2)：60-66,73,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2095-1973.2024.02.009
基于三种不同分布函数的西藏东部地区极大风速估算研究
Maximum Wind Speed Estimation in Eastern Tibet Based on Three Different Distribution Functions
摘要
Abstract
Based on the long-term observation data from 9 stations in Eastern Tibet(the earliest since 1953)and the short-term observation data after 2014 from 61 stations,three different probability density distribution functions are used to estimate the maximum wind speed in Eastern Tibet and analyze its spatiotemporal distribution.The results show that in the long term,Eastern Tibet is jointly influenced by the westerly zone and monsoon,with the northwest wind(with a frequency of 27％)as the main wind direction.99％of the sample wind speeds are no more than 9.0 m/s,and wind speeds exceeding 15.0 m/s only account for 0.016％.Type Ⅰ,Ⅱ and Ⅲ distribution functions are used to fit the measured maximum wind speeds,and it is found that the parameters fitted for different time periods are not significantly different.Using the least squares method for verification and correction can greatly reduce the mean absolute deviation and root mean square error of the estimated maximum wind speed,and the prolonged time series of the observation data brings better overall estimation effect.The estimated distribution of the maximum wind speed in Eastern Tibet that is based on type Ⅱ function can better reflect the actual spatial distribution of the maximum wind speed in the region,with a range of 13.2 to 30.9 m/s.关键词
西藏东部/极大风速/概率密度函数/累积概率密度/极值Ⅱ型(Frechet)分布Key words
Eastern Tibet/maximum wind speed/probability density function/cumulative density function/Frechet distribution引用本文复制引用
朱薇薇,郭龙光,泽仁罗布,永青卓嘎..基于三种不同分布函数的西藏东部地区极大风速估算研究[J].气象科技进展,2024,14(2):60-66,73,8.基金项目
西藏自治区自然科学基金项目(XZ202001ZR0028G,XZ202101ZR0041G) （XZ202001ZR0028G,XZ202101ZR0041G）
甘肃省青年人才(团队)项目(2022LQTD55) （团队）
