人口与经济Issue(3)：57-69,13.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2024.00.022
城镇化发展中后期我国农村劳动力迁移年龄模式研究
The Age Patterns of China's Rural Labor Migration at the Middle and Late Stages of Urbanization Development:Based on a Perspective of Migration Order and Cohort Differences
摘要
Abstract
As China has entered the middle and late stage of urbanization,the growth rate of rural labor migration has slowed down and return migration has increased.Under the background of huge scale of total rural population and big gap between agricultural and non-agricultural labor productivity,the trend mentioned above contradicts the principles of labor migration as per Lewis'dual economy theory.Based on the perspective of migration order and cohort differences,using data from the China Labor Dynamics Survey(CLDS)database,this paper adopts the binary selection model as well as the Hierarchical APC-Cross Classification Random Effects Model to theoretically explore and empirically test the differences in the age patterns of the initial migration and re-migration of rural labor as well as the initial migration of labor in different birth cohorts in China,in order to deeply understand the law of labor migration and accurately evaluate the future development trend.The results are as follows:First,the remigration intention of returnee workers is greater than that of the never-migrated,where such difference is mainly concentrated in the 20-45 years old young and middle-aged population.Second,the initial migration behavior of rural labor in China has typical age characteristics and obvious cohort differences.The later the birth cohort,the more significant the inverted U-shaped relationship between the initial migration rate and age is,and the more pronounced the spiking pattern is.In order to promote the continuous improvement of China's urbanization level and the construction of a unified urban and rural labor market,it is proposed that we should make adaptive policies focusing on improving the natural growth level of rural population,strengthening the stability of the migration of young and middle-aged returnee labor,and tapping the migration potential of rural middle-aged and elderly labor.关键词
劳动力迁移/年龄模式/迁移次序/队列差异Key words
labor migration/age patterns/migration order/cohort differences分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
王亚楠,谢晶鑫..城镇化发展中后期我国农村劳动力迁移年龄模式研究[J].人口与经济,2024,(3):57-69,13.基金项目
江苏省社会科学基金项目"乡村振兴背景下江苏农业用地集中流转发展研究"(522019911) （522019911）
中国博士后科学基金面上项目"连片规模化视角下农地流转与劳动力转移互相关系及制约机制研究"(2022M721640) （2022M721640）
中央高校基本科研业务费项目"集中流转方式下我国农地流转市场运行的基本规律、实际效果与约束机制研究"(B220201072). （B220201072）
