城镇化发展中后期我国农村劳动力迁移年龄模式研究OA北大核心CHSSCDCSSCICSTPCD

As China has entered the middle and late stage of urbanization,the growth rate of rural labor migration has slowed down and return migration has increased.Under the background of huge scale of total rural population and big gap between agricultural and non-agricultural labor productivity,the trend mentioned above contradicts the principles of labor migration as per Lewis'dual economy theory.Based on the perspective of migration order and cohort differences,using data from the China Labor Dynamics Survey(CLDS)database,this paper adopts the binary selection model as well as the Hierarchical APC-Cross Classification Random Effects Model to theoretically explore and empirically test the differences in the age patterns of the initial migration and re-migration of rural labor as well as the initial migration of labor in different birth cohorts in China,in order to deeply understand the law of labor migration and accurately evaluate the future development trend.The results are as follows:First,the remigration intention of returnee workers is greater than that of the never-migrated,where such difference is mainly concentrated in the 20-45 years old young and middle-aged population.Second,the initial migration behavior of rural labor in China has typical age characteristics and obvious cohort differences.The later the birth cohort,the more significant the inverted U-shaped relationship between the initial migration rate and age is,and the more pronounced the spiking pattern is.In order to promote the continuous improvement of China's urbanization level and the construction of a unified urban and rural labor market,it is proposed that we should make adaptive policies focusing on improving the natural growth level of rural population,strengthening the stability of the migration of young and middle-aged returnee labor,and tapping the migration potential of rural middle-aged and elderly labor.