人民珠江2024，Vol.45Issue(5)：65-74,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2024.05.008
基于Delft3D的珠江前航道尸体模型漂移轨迹预测
Prediction of Corpse Model Drifting Trajectories in Pearl River Front Channel Based on Delft3D Model
摘要
Abstract
To predict the drifting trajectories of bodies in the Pearl River Front Channel and assist local water police in locating the specific positions of drowning victims,this study uses Delft3D to construct a hydrodynamic model of the Pearl River Front Channel and conducts multiple on-site drifting tests using a corpse model.By fitting the surface flow velocity of the Pearl River Front Channel,the paper builds a prediction model for corpse model drifting with an R2 of 0.88.The results show that the corpse model released in the Pearl River Front Channel undergoes back-and-forth motion along the river channel under the influence of tides and flows,gradually drifting downstream.In the drifting model validation,the drifting speed and direction of the corpse model are generally consistent with the tidal current,and the error in simulation results is within 1 km,with a final distance error rate of less than 15%.In a case study,the simulated results for an adult female corpse have an error of approximately 300 m.External forces such as wave force caused by boats result in a north-south directional deviation in the drifting trajectory,indicating the need to further improve the simulation effect.The derivation mode of the model is also applicable to other tidal rivers,making it possible to measure the drifting trajectories of bodies and providing convenience and reference for body recovery work and police case processing.关键词
Delft3D/感潮河段/漂移轨迹/预测模型/拟合Key words
Delft3D/tidal reach/drifting trajectory/prediction model/fitting分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
程香菊,陈泽海,李斌,李旭,毕锦进,王龙威..基于Delft3D的珠江前航道尸体模型漂移轨迹预测[J].人民珠江,2024,45(5):65-74,10.基金项目
广东省水利科技创新项目(2023-06) （2023-06）
