兽类学报2024，Vol.44Issue(3)：287-296,10.DOI:10.16829/j.slxb.150846
气候变化背景下卡拉麦里国家公园蒙古野驴适宜生境脆弱性评价
Vulnerability assessment of suitable habitats for Equus hemionus in the Kalamaili National Park under climate change
摘要
Abstract
Assessing Mongolian wild ass(Equus hemionus)vulnerability to climate change is a prerequisite for develop-ing effective strategies to reduce emerging climate-related threats in the Kalamaili National Park.In this paper,a total of 207 Mongolian wild ass occurrence records and nine variables as model parameters were conducted on the BIOMOD2 platform to assess the vulnerability of suitable Mongolian wild ass habitat under current and future 2050s(2041-2071),2080s(2071-2100)climatic scenario.The result revealed that out of the 10 BIOMOD2 platform models,the random for-est(RF)simulation performed the best and the surface distribution differentiation chamber(SRE)model performed the worst.The true skill statistic(TSS)and the area under the subject working characteristic curve(AUC)of the combined model were 0.939 and 0.996,respectively,indicating that its simulation results for the current distribution of Mongolian wild ass were reliable.Annual mean temperature and mean temperature of coldest quarter are the dominant factors af-fecting the distribution of Mongolian wild ass.Suitable habitats for Mongolian wild ass were mainly distributed in the northern,central,and eastern parts of the Kalamaili National Park on both sides of National Highway 216.Under the background of future climate change,the suitable habitat area of Mongolian wild ass will be further reduced by 2080s(SSP370),suitable habitat will be mainly located in the eastern part of the national park and decreased by 68.8％com-pared with the current period.In this study,we use simulation results from the combination model provided by the B1O-MOD2 platform to analyze the dynamic changes in suitable habitats for Mongolian wild ass under different climatic con-ditions,to provide a benchmark for biodiversity conservation under climate change,and to assess further the effective-ness of climate change conservation in the Kalamaili National Park and propose an adaptive conservation plan.关键词
濒危物种/BIOMOD2/脆弱性评价/保护对策/气候庇护所Key words
Endangered species/BIOMOD2/Vulnerability assessment/Conservation strategies/Climate refuge分类
生物科学引用本文复制引用
高帅帅,胡杨,邵长亮,蒋丽伟,张于光,苏志珠,吴波,李佳..气候变化背景下卡拉麦里国家公园蒙古野驴适宜生境脆弱性评价[J].兽类学报,2024,44(3):287-296,10.基金项目
第三次新疆综合科学考察项目(2021xjkk12003) （2021xjkk12003）
荒漠区生物多样性综合考察(2019FY102002) （2019FY102002）
