气候变化背景下卡拉麦里国家公园蒙古野驴适宜生境脆弱性评价OA北大核心CSTPCD

Assessing Mongolian wild ass(Equus hemionus)vulnerability to climate change is a prerequisite for develop-ing effective strategies to reduce emerging climate-related threats in the Kalamaili National Park.In this paper,a total of 207 Mongolian wild ass occurrence records and nine variables as model parameters were conducted on the BIOMOD2 platform to assess the vulnerability of suitable Mongolian wild ass habitat under current and future 2050s(2041-2071),2080s(2071-2100)climatic scenario.The result revealed that out of the 10 BIOMOD2 platform models,the random for-est(RF)simulation performed the best and the surface distribution differentiation chamber(SRE)model performed the worst.The true skill statistic(TSS)and the area under the subject working characteristic curve(AUC)of the combined model were 0.939 and 0.996,respectively,indicating that its simulation results for the current distribution of Mongolian wild ass were reliable.Annual mean temperature and mean temperature of coldest quarter are the dominant factors af-fecting the distribution of Mongolian wild ass.Suitable habitats for Mongolian wild ass were mainly distributed in the northern,central,and eastern parts of the Kalamaili National Park on both sides of National Highway 216.Under the background of future climate change,the suitable habitat area of Mongolian wild ass will be further reduced by 2080s(SSP370),suitable habitat will be mainly located in the eastern part of the national park and decreased by 68.8％com-pared with the current period.In this study,we use simulation results from the combination model provided by the B1O-MOD2 platform to analyze the dynamic changes in suitable habitats for Mongolian wild ass under different climatic con-ditions,to provide a benchmark for biodiversity conservation under climate change,and to assess further the effective-ness of climate change conservation in the Kalamaili National Park and propose an adaptive conservation plan.