饲料研究2024，Vol.47Issue(9)：178-182,5.DOI:10.13557/j.cnki.issn1002-2813.2024.09.033
我国牛肉价格波动影响因素研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析
Research on influencing factors of beef price fluctuation in China——An empirical analysis based on VAR model
摘要
Abstract
In order to ensure the reasonable and stable price of beef and promote the sustainable and healthy development of the beef market,based on the monthly data of Chinese livestock industry from December 2011 to December 2022,the paper selects corn price,producer expectation,calf price,and national policy to build a VAR model from the perspective of internal transmission and external impact,and empirically tests the influencing factors and degree of beef price fluctuation in China.The results show that corn prices,producer expectations,calf prices,and national policies can affect beef prices.Among them,the corn price has a significant impact on the fluctuation of beef price through the internal transmission mechanism,and the stable contribution rate is about 8％.National policy has a significant impact on the fluctuation of beef prices in China through the external impact mechanism,with a contribution rate of 15％.The price of beef in the early stage significantly affects the market price of beef in the later stage.Therefore,some suggestions were put forward to reduce the feed cost of the beef cattle industry,strengthen the financial support of the beef cattle industry,and improve the market supervision system of beef price fluctuation,in order to provide a reference for stabilizing the beef price and promoting the sustainable development of the livestock industry.关键词
牛肉价格波动/VAR模型/供给侧改革/格兰杰因果检验Key words
beef price fluctuation/VAR model/supply side reform/granger causality test分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
吴鸭珠..我国牛肉价格波动影响因素研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析[J].饲料研究,2024,47(9):178-182,5.基金项目
江苏省2020年度高校哲学社会科学研究一般项目(项目编号:2020SJA1687) （项目编号:2020SJA1687）
