护理研究2024，Vol.38Issue(11)：1908-1913,6.DOI:10.12102/j.issn.1009-6493.2024.11.005
儿童青少年高尿酸血症风险预测模型的构建与验证
Construction and validation of a risk prediction model for hyperuricemia in children and adolescents
摘要
Abstract
Objective:To investigate the risk factors for the development of hyperuricemia in children and adolescents and to construct a risk prediction model.Methods:The clinical data of 9 857 cases of children and adolescents aged 6～17 years attending the Affiliated Hospital of Chuanbei Medical College from January 2017 to December 2021 were retrospectively analyzed,and 8 689 cases from January 2017 to December 2020 constituted the modeling group,and 1 168 cases from January to December 2021 constituted the validation group for internal validation.Referring to the definition of hyperuricemia,they were divided into hyperuricemia group and non-hyperuricemia group.Univariate analysis and Logistic regression were applied to analyze the influencing factors of hyperuricemia in children and adolescents,and prediction models were developed.The area under the subject operating characteristic(ROC)curve(AUC)and C-index were used to assess the predictive ability of the model,and Bootstrap repeated sampling method(1 000 times of sampling)was used for internal validation of the model.Results:The results of multifactorial analysis showed that age,gender,body mass index,creatinine,urea nitrogen,estimated glomerular filtration rate,triglycerides,high-density lipoprotein as influencing factors of hyperuricemia in children and adolescents.The area under the ROC curve AUC of the model was 0.876,the sensitivity was 0.809,the specificity was 0.796,the Youden index was 0.611,and the C-index was 0.877.the area under the ROC curve AUC of external validation was 0.838,and the overall correctness of the model was 77.8%.Conclusion:The risk prediction model for hyperuricemia in children and adolescents has good predictive efficacy and implementability,and provides a reference for clinical staff to assess the risk of hyperuricemia in children and adolescents.关键词
儿童/青少年/高尿酸血症/危险因素/预测模型Key words
children/adolescents/hyperuricemia/risk factors/prediction model引用本文复制引用
肖宁婷,李莉,郭雪梅,陈丽吏..儿童青少年高尿酸血症风险预测模型的构建与验证[J].护理研究,2024,38(11):1908-1913,6.基金项目
四川省基层卫生事业发展研究中心2022年立项项目,编号:SWFZ22-C-94 （）
