水资源保护2024，Vol.40Issue(3)：71-77,7.DOI:10.3880/j.issn.1004-6933.2024.03.009
基于水资源空间均衡的"四水四定"调控模型构建
Construction of"defining city,land,population,and industry based on water"regulation and control model based on spatial equilibrium of water resources
摘要
Abstract
In order to realize the spatial equilibrium and dynamic regulation of water resources at different time scales in the future,a complete and rigorous model system for"defining city,land,population,and industry based on water",suitable for balance measurement and dynamic control of water resources in different provinces and cities,was created.The total regional water consumption was predicted by the support vector machine(SVM)model based on fuzzy information granulation window,the regional sub-water consumption was predicted by the autoregressive-SVM model based on time series similarity analysis,and uncertainty of the two types of data was analyzed.Complex regression functions were constructed to predict various water use indicators in different scenarios,which were used as future water use indicators under current water use pattern after statistical test.Then,a water resources carrying capacity model of"defining city,land,population,and industry based on water"and a water resouces spatial equilibrium model were constructed,and three indicators including the water resources loading coefficient,water consumption efficiency,and matching factor of water and soil resources were selected based on the future total water consumption,future sub-water consumption,and future water use indicators,to quantify the spatial equilibrium degree of water resources in combination with the Gini coefficient and analyze the future equilibrium degree of water resources under current water use pattern.Finally,an optimization model was constructed,with minimization of the Gini coefficient as the objective function,to adjust the future water use pattern and realize dynamic regulation of water resources.The model system can realize the spatial equilibrium and dynamic regulation of water resources at different time scales in the future.关键词
"四水四定"/水资源空间均衡/水资源动态调控/时间序列相似性/支持向量机模型/模糊信息粒化窗口Key words
"defining city,land,population,and industry based on water"/spatial equilibrium of water resources/dynamic regulation and control of water resources/time series similarity/support vector machine model/fuzzy information granulation window分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
魏豪杉,王红瑞,郏鹏鑫,周利超,李永坤,刘昌明..基于水资源空间均衡的"四水四定"调控模型构建[J].水资源保护,2024,40(3):71-77,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52279005) （52279005）
国家发展和改革委员会"四水四定"政策研究项目(23-10-13) （23-10-13）
