天然气工业2024，Vol.44Issue(5)：146-156,11.DOI:10.3787/j.issn.1000-0976.2024.05.013
"双碳"目标下中国工业部门氢能需求量测算及供给结构路径优化
Towards China's"dual carbon"goals:Industrial hydrogen demand estimation and supply structure optimization
摘要
Abstract
Under the national drive to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality("dual carbon"),it is imperative for China's energy system to accelerate the pace towards low-carbon transition.The industrial sector,with high dependency upon traditional fossil fuels and materials,is very hard to decarbonize in so many fields.Luckily,abundant,green and scalable hydrogen offers a feasible solution to the problem.As such,a three-stage model was set up to estimate the hydrogen demand of key industrial industries,and to explore optimized pathways towards hydrogen supply.The results show that:1)major hydrogen consumption comes from steel and iron,cement,methanol and ammonia synthesis,all being hard-to-debate by electrification process;2)under the reference scenario,high penetration and low penetration scenarios,the estimated hydrogen demand in 2060 is 2 509.1×104 t,5 037.8×104 t,6 865.7×104 t,respectively;3)the supply structure will shift to green hydrogen(renewables)from gray hydrogen(fossil energy);4)with increasing application of green hydrogen,it's estimated that between 2020 and 2060,hydrogen would replace coals of 41.7×108 tce and petroleum of 11.3×108 tce,reducing 16.7%of carbon emissions.In summary,scaling up hydrogen development is essential for China's industrial sectors to cut energy demand and carbon emissions.关键词
中国/工业部门/氢能需求/供给结构/能源替代/减排贡献Key words
China/Industrial sector/Hydrogen demand/Supply structure/Energy substitution/Emission abatement分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
李忻颖,唐旭,许传博,王敏,马美艳.."双碳"目标下中国工业部门氢能需求量测算及供给结构路径优化[J].天然气工业,2024,44(5):146-156,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目"多重目标下中国油气生产的锁定碳排放与解锁策略研究"(编号:72174206). （编号:72174206）
