"双碳"目标下中国工业部门氢能需求量测算及供给结构路径优化OA北大核心CSTPCDEI

Under the national drive to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality("dual carbon"),it is imperative for China's energy system to accelerate the pace towards low-carbon transition.The industrial sector,with high dependency upon traditional fossil fuels and materials,is very hard to decarbonize in so many fields.Luckily,abundant,green and scalable hydrogen offers a feasible solution to the problem.As such,a three-stage model was set up to estimate the hydrogen demand of key industrial industries,and to explore optimized pathways towards hydrogen supply.The results show that:1)major hydrogen consumption comes from steel and iron,cement,methanol and ammonia synthesis,all being hard-to-debate by electrification process;2)under the reference scenario,high penetration and low penetration scenarios,the estimated hydrogen demand in 2060 is 2 509.1×104 t,5 037.8×104 t,6 865.7×104 t,respectively;3)the supply structure will shift to green hydrogen(renewables)from gray hydrogen(fossil energy);4)with increasing application of green hydrogen,it's estimated that between 2020 and 2060,hydrogen would replace coals of 41.7×108 tce and petroleum of 11.3×108 tce,reducing 16.7%of carbon emissions.In summary,scaling up hydrogen development is essential for China's industrial sectors to cut energy demand and carbon emissions.