基于气候因子的川中柏木人工林直径分布预测模型OA北大核心CSTPCD

The size-class distribution models considering climatic factors were constructed for Cupressus fu-nebris plantations.And the regularity of stand diameter distribution and the response to climate change were analyzed to provide a scientific basis for plantation management and decision making.Using the sur-vey data of C.funebris plantations in central Sichuan,the Weibull distribution parameters were estimated by maximum likelihood estimation.The size-class distribution model was constructed based on Bayesian model averaging(BMA).Furthermore,the effect of climate change on diameter distribution was analyzed.Maximum likelihood estimation showed strong capability to well estimate diameter distributions for C.fu-nebris plantations.The size-class distribution models based on BMA include slope,humus thickness,age,tree numbers per hectare,stand basal area,mean warmest month temperature and mean annual precipitati-on.The mean absolute bias,coefficient of determination and root mean square error of five cross-validation for parameter b were 0.78,0.78 and 0.92,and for parameter c were 0.26,0.67 and 0.32,indicating better prediction accuracy.The diameter distribution shifted to the right with the increase of mean warmest month temperature and mean annual precipitation.The size-class distribution models based on BMA have the capability to accurately predict diameter distribution.And the increasing mean warmest month temper-ature and mean annual precipitation can facilitate stand growth.