数字经济对城乡融合发展的影响研究OA北大核心CSTPCD

The urban-rural dichotomy has fragmented the entire economy,which leads to the serious imbalance between urban and rural development over time. The dichotomy has hindered the formation of the domestic economic cycle pattern in China and reduced the allocation efficiency of production factors between urban and rural areas. The article examined the mechanisms by which the vibrant digital economy influences the urban-rural integration development from the perspective of urban-rural labor mismatch,in order to build the new relationships between industry and agriculture,urban and rural areas and to establish a unified market for commodity and factors between urban and rural areas. Based on the provincial panel data from 2011 to 2021 ( excluding Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan and Tibet),the article constructed an entropy method index system to measure the digital economy index and urban-rural integration development index,and calculated urban-rural labor mismatch index in each province. The study was based on the assumption of the urban-rural dichotomy,with labor mismatch between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors as a proxy for their relationship between urban and rural areas. By constructing panel regression and threshold regression,the paper investigated the relationship among digital economy,urban-rural labor mismatch and urban-rural integration development. The article firstly reviewed and summarized the relevant literature on urban-rural integration development,urban-rural labor mismatch,comprehensive research on digital economy and urban-rural integration development. Then,it theoretically analyzed the influence mechanism of digital economy affecting urban-rural integration development in the presence of labor mismatch. After controlling for as many variables as possible that may have effect,the coefficient of the digital economy's impact on urban-rural integration development was larger in the panel regression compared to the results of the ordinary least squares regression. It suggested that a small increase in the digital economy index can cause a significant increase in the degree of urban-rural integration development. After applying the Sobel-Goodman test,the article found that the coefficient of the digital economy on the urban-rural labor mismatch index had the opposite sign to the one of the urban-rural labor mismatch index on the urban-rural integration development index. Therefore,the urban-rural labor mismatch index played a masking effect between the digital economy and urban-rural integration development. It meant that the development of the digital economy can alleviate the degree of distortion in the urban and rural labor markets,enhance the efficiency of urban and rural labor resource allocation,and thus promote the urban-rural integration development. When the degree of labor mismatch between urban and rural areas was more severe,it was weaker that the digital economy had the facilitating effect on urban-rural integration development. Further,using the urban-rural labor mismatch index as threshold variable,it was found that there is a single threshold value of 0.2757 in the impact of the digital economy on urban-rural integration development. Once the index value exceeded 0.2757,it will significantly decrease the coefficient value of the digital economy index on the urban-rural integration development index,but the coefficient was still significantly positive. It suggested that the facilitating effect of the digital economy on urban-rural integration development will be partially suppressed as the urban-rural labor mismatch index increased,resulting in greater efficiency losses and weaker growth dynamics. Based on the above study,the paper tested the results for robustness using the approach of phased regression and exclusion of exceptional samples. The coefficients of the digital economy index on urban-rural integration development had decreased but was still significantly positive,indicating that the regression results were robust. The results are as follows. First,the digital economy can significantly contribute to urban-rural integration development,and have a greater coefficient of influence in the long term;Secondly,digital economy can relieve the phenomenon of urban-rural labor mismatch in China,and have a promoting effect on urban-rural integration development. Labor mismatch shows masking effect in the impact mechanism because it will lead efficiency loss. Thirdly,the degree of digital economy's effect on urban-rural integration development was affected by the threshold of urban-rural labor mismatch. When the degree of urban-rural labor mismatch was high,the promotion effect will be greatly inhibited,which exacerbated waste of resources and is not conducive to urban-rural integration development. Combined with the above results,the article puts forward policy recommendations from four perspectives:rationalizing the layout of new digital infrastructure construction,digitally empowering urban and rural factor allocation,deepening factor market reform,and building the national unified market. The study complements the theoretical discussion of labor mismatch in the mechanism of digital economy's impact on urban-rural integration development and hopes to provide feasible countermeasure suggestions for the problems encountered in urban-rural integration development and rural revitalization in China.