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基于SD模型的南昌市可持续发展多情景模拟

李鑫

江西科学2024,Vol.42Issue(3):511-519,9.
江西科学2024,Vol.42Issue(3):511-519,9.DOI:10.13990/j.issn1001-3679.2024.03.009

基于SD模型的南昌市可持续发展多情景模拟

Multi-scenario Simulation of Sustainable Development in Nanchang City Based on SD Model

李鑫1

作者信息

  • 1. 江苏省城镇化和城乡规划研究中心,210036,南京
  • 折叠

摘要

Abstract

With the help of the principles and methods of system dynamics,this paper constructs the evaluation model of sustainable development of Nanchang city,which includes five subsystems:e-conomy,society,resources,environment and policy to simulate the changing situation and charac-teristics of sustainable development under different development scenarios in Nanchang,so as to pro-vide reference for its sustainable development decision-making.The results show that by 2030,the urban comprehensive sustainability of Nanchang shows an upward trend,but the sustainable growth of resource utilization and eco-environment subsystem increased slowly.The comprehensive coordi-nation scenario model is a better choice for the future development of Nanchang city.In the future,by taking high-quality development as the guidance,adjusting the industrial structure,increasing R&D investment,improving the level of resource utilization,strengthening eco-environmental pro-tection and comprehensive renovation,it can greatly promote the sustainable development of Nan-chang city under the comprehensive and coordinated scenario.

关键词

系统动力学/可持续发展/多情景模拟/南昌市

Key words

system dynamics/sustainable development/multi-scenario simulation/Nanchang city

分类

管理科学

引用本文复制引用

李鑫..基于SD模型的南昌市可持续发展多情景模拟[J].江西科学,2024,42(3):511-519,9.

江西科学

1001-3679

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