江西科学2024，Vol.42Issue(3)：538-543,667,7.DOI:10.13990/j.issn1001-3679.2024.03.013
基于普适型降雨监测设备的江西省滑坡灾害降雨阈值分析
Analysis of Rainfall Thresholds for Landslides in Jiangxi Province Based on Universal Rainfall Monitoring Instruments
摘要
Abstract
Rainfall events are oftentimes the important triggering cause for landslides.In this paper,the rainfall information of 416 rainfall-induced landslides in Jiangxi province was analyzed,consid-ering the role of previous effective rainfall.Based on these datasets,accumulated precipitation-rain-fall duration(E-D)thresholds and mean rainfall intensity-rainfall duration(I-D)thresholds for different probabilities of occurrence,corresponding to various early warning levels,were calculated using a Frequentist method,and the model reliability was verified.The following results are ob-tained:previous rainfall has a significant impact on the occurrence of landslide,and the rainfall-in-duced landslides in Jiangxi province are mainly triggered by rainfall within 10 days.Four early warn-ing levels can be used to monitor landslide disasters,and the rainfall threshold curves can be deter-mined according to the occurrence probabilities of 5%,20%,50%and 80%,respectively.The mean rainfall intensity-rainfall duration(I-D)threshold model has higher prediction accuracy and is more suitable for rainfall-induced landslide early warning in Jiangxi province.The research can provide guidance for government departments in landslide early warning and effectively reduce the harm of landslides.关键词
滑坡/累计降雨量/降雨历时/监测预警/阈值模型Key words
landslide/accumulated precipitation/rainfall duration/monitoring warning/threshold model分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
杨连伟,黄传胜,李华,李鹏,欧阳昊明..基于普适型降雨监测设备的江西省滑坡灾害降雨阈值分析[J].江西科学,2024,42(3):538-543,667,7.基金项目
江西省自然科学基金项目(20202BABL214047) （20202BABL214047）
东华理工大学博士科研启动基金资助项目(DH-BK2019240,DHBK2019243). （DH-BK2019240,DHBK2019243）
