台风风暴潮与上游洪水耦合作用下温州飞云江感潮河段潮水位模拟研究OA北大核心CSTPCD

Against the backdrop of rapid global climate change,the frequency and severity of storm surges in coastal areas are increasing,particularly in tidal river segments that are affected by storm surges and upstream river flooding.Although existing storm surge models have introduced a variety of different boundary settings,the boundary conditions provided are limited and cannot meet the current generalization needs of complex hydraulic engineering projects in China.This study considered the Feiyun River Basin as the research subject and coupled the upstream hydrodynamic model IFMS with the oceanic storm surge model ADCIRC.By utilizing the strengths of both models,a flood evolution model for the estuarine tidal river segment was established,enabling the spatiotemporal simulation of tidal levels in the Feiyun River tidal segment.The model not only effectively considers the impact of storm surge propagation at the estuary on flood evolution in the tidal river segment,but also the effect of upstream river flooding on the area.The study first validated the model with Typhoon Meranti in 2016,where the simulation results showed a high degree of agreement with the observed data series and errors were within acceptable limits.Flood processes at the Ruian,Mayu,Bishan Liqiao,and Dongtou tidal stations during Typhoons Doksuri and Khanun were simulated.The results show that the peak flood errors at all four stations were below 0.30 m,with Nash coefficients>0.80,indicating the model's capability to accurately reflect tidal level fluctuations and effectively contribute to disaster prevention and mitigation efforts in estuarine tidal segments.Finally,the study analyzed the impact of the driving forces of the upstream and downstream boundaries on tidal level predictions at three stations(Ruian,Mayu,and Bishan Liqiao).It was concluded that,compared to Mayu and Bishan Liqiao stations,the influence of the upstream boundary on Ruian can essentially be ignored,suggesting that the error from the upstream boundary under the influence of Typhoon Khanun is negligible for predicting errors at Ruian.The degree of the impact of the downstream boundary fluctuations on the three stations,from largest to smallest,was Ruian,Bishan Liqiao,and Mayu.Compared to the changes in the upstream boundary,the downstream boundary had a greater overall impact on all three stations.Additionally,when the downstream boundary changed by the same magnitude,the variation in low tide levels showed a decreasing trend from downstream to upstream,whereas the variation in high tide levels,although following the same trend,did not show a significant difference between the three.In summary,compared to the upstream boundary,the downstream boundary had a greater impact on tidal-level predictions at the three stations.The result shows that the lower boundary has a greater impact on the tidal level forecasts at three stations compared to the upper boundary.The study not only provides a new method for tidal river flood simulation in coastal urbanized areas but also offers directions for improving model simulation accuracy through analysis.