热带地理2024，Vol.44Issue(6)：1047-1063,17.DOI:10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.20230961
1978-2020年中国台风灾害灾情时空分布格局及影响因素分析
Analysis of Temporal-Spatial Patterns and Impact Factors of Typhoon Disaster Losses in China from 1978 to 2020
摘要
Abstract
Typhoons are among the most significant natural disasters affecting the eastern and southern coastal regions of China,inflicting substantial annual damage on both coastal and inland areas.Since the initiation of the reform and opening-up policy,the socioeconomic development of the coastal regions of China has been swift,leading to increased exposure to typhoons.In the context of global climate change,typhoons are expected to increase in frequency and intensity in China.Therefore,researching on the spatiotemporal pattern characteristics of typhoons impacting China is of critical importance for understanding the impact patterns and risk changes of typhoon disasters,as well as for formulating policies on disaster response,prevention,and mitigation.This study aims to provide valuable insights into the formulation of such policies.Based on these objectives,this study utilized a comprehensive dataset,including county-level socioeconomic and disaster statistics,historical typhoon wind and rainfall data,and high-precision topographic data.Using county-level administrative regions as spatial units,this study employed various methods,such as time-series statistical analysis,gravity model,geographical detector,spatial correlation analysis,and geographically weighted regression,to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution patterns and influencing factors of typhoon disaster conditions in China from 1978 to 2020.The findings of this study are as follows:(1)The number of deaths and missing persons,quantity of damaged housing,death,and missing rate per million people,and proportion of direct economic loss to GDP caused by typhoon disasters have all shown a declining trend,indicating significant achievements in disaster prevention and mitigation efforts.(2)The center of gravity of typhoon disaster-related losses has shifted southward,corresponding with the economic development of coastal regions,demonstrating a reduced disaster impact in coastal areas and an increased impact in inland areas.(3)Wind and rain induced by typhoons are the primary driving factors of disaster conditions,and topographical factors are also drivers of casualties and crop loss.(4)The two major regions,Zhejiang-Northern Fujian and Western Guangdong-Eastern Guangxi,exhibit significant characteristics of disaster condition agglomeration,closely related to typhoon activity patterns and levels of economic development.(5)There is a negative correlation between the gross local product and disaster conditions in some areas,reflecting the role of socioeconomic development in enhancing the capacity for disaster prevention and mitigation.关键词
台风灾害/县域尺度/时空格局/地理探测器/空间相关分析/GWR模型/中国Key words
typhoon disaster/county level/temporal-spatial pattern/geo-detector/spatial correlation/GWR model/China分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
张鹏,张云霞,汪洋,丁一,尹宜舟,董震,武喜红..1978-2020年中国台风灾害灾情时空分布格局及影响因素分析[J].热带地理,2024,44(6):1047-1063,17.基金项目
国家重点研发计划专项项目(2022YFC3006400、2022YFC3006405) （2022YFC3006400、2022YFC3006405）
