1980-2020年疏勒河流域水面蒸发量变化趋势及预测OA北大核心CSTPCD
Change Trend and Prediction of Water Surface Evaporation in Shule River Basin from 1980 to 2020
[目的]揭示疏勒河流域水面蒸发量的变化特征及未来演变趋势,以期更深入了解流域内水资源的动态变化,为该地区规划和管理水资源的利用提供决策支撑.[方法]基于1980-2020年昌马堡、双塔堡水库、党城湾、党河水库4个水文站逐月、逐年水面蒸发资料,采用线性倾向率、滑动t检验、R/S分析法、BP神经网络等分析方法对流域近40年水面蒸发变化特征进行了研究,并预测了未来水面蒸发量及其变化趋势.[结果](1)1980-2020年疏勒河流域各站点水面蒸发量年际变化整体均呈减少趋势,各站倾向率排序为:双塔堡水库站(-187.10 mm/10 a)＞党河水库站(-178.20 mm/10 a)＞昌马堡站(-33.00 mm/10 a)＞党城湾站(-30.00 mm/10 a),其中双塔堡水库和党河水库站减少趋势十分显著.(2)昌马堡、双塔堡水库和党河水库站四季水面蒸发量均表现为减少趋势,党城湾站春季呈不显著增加趋势,其他季节呈下降趋势.(3)昌马堡、党城湾、双塔堡水库和党河水库4站突变年份分别为2004年、2015年、2007年和2007年.(4)流域水面蒸发量不均匀系数和集中度整体表现为减少趋势.(5)预测2021-2026年水面蒸发量将继续呈下降变化趋势.[结论]整体上,疏勒河流域全年和四季水面蒸发量呈减少变化趋势,且未来也表现为下降演变趋势.
[Objective]The aims of this study are to reveal the variation characteristics and future evolution trend of water surface evaporation in the Shule River Basin,to better understand the dynamic changes of water resources in the basin,so as to provide decision support for the planning and management of water resources utilization in the region.[Methods]Based on the monthly and yearly water surface evaporation data of four hydrology stations in Changmabao,Shuangtabao Reservoir,Dangcheng Bay and Danghe Reservoir from 1980 to 2020,linear dip rate,sliding t test,R/S analysis,BP neural network and other analysis methods were used to examine the characteristics of surface evaporation changes in the past 40 years,and the future evaporation and its change trend were predicted.[Results](1)The annual variation of water surface evaporation at all stations in the Shule River Basin showed a decreasing trend during 1980-2020,and the trend rate of each station was ranked as:Shuangtabao Reservoir Station(-187.10 mm/decade)＞Danghe Reservoir Station(-178.20 mm/decade)＞Changmabao Station(-33.00 mm/decade)＞Dangchengwan Station(-30.00 mm/decade),among which the decrease trend of Shuangtabao Reservoir and Danghe Reservoir Station was very significant.(2)The water surface evaporation of Changmabao,Shuangtapao Reservoir and Danghe Reservoir Stations showed a decreasing trend in all seasons,while that of Dangchengwan Station showed an insignificant increasing trend in spring and a decreasing trend in other seasons.(3)The mutation years of Changmabao,Dangcheng Bay,Shuangtabao Reservoir and Danghe Reservoir were 2004,2015,2007 and 2007,respectively.(4)The uneven coefficient and concentration of evaporation on the surface of the basin showed a decreasing trend as a whole.(5)It is predicted that the evaporation of water surface will continue to show a downward trend in 2021-2026.[Conclusion]On the whole,the annual and seasonal water surface evaporation in the Shule River Basin shows a decreasing trend,and it also shows a decreasing trend in the future.
周敏;孙栋元;赵玉峰;惠磊;牛最荣;马亚丽;武兰珍;王兴繁
甘肃农业大学水利水电工程学院,兰州 730070西和县水务局,甘肃陇南 742100酒泉市党河流域水资源管理局,甘肃酒泉 735000
地球科学
水面蒸发量演变特征未来趋势疏勒河流域
water surface evaporationevolution characteristicsfuture trendsShule River Basin
《水土保持研究》 2024 (004)
50-58 / 9
甘肃省高等学校青年博士资助项目(2022QB-070);甘肃农业大学科技创新基金青年导师扶持资助项目(GAU-QDFC-2021-16);甘肃省重点研发计划项目(21YF5NA015);甘肃省青年科技基金计划项目(21JR7RA854);甘肃省水利科学试验研究与技术推广项目(23GSLK092)
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