水土保持研究2024，Vol.31Issue(4)：114-125,12.DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.04.010
基于CMIP6的气候变化下资水流域径流响应研究
Study on Runoff Response of Zishui Basin Under Climate Change Based on CMIP6
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The aims of this study are to explore the runoff response of Zishui Basin under future climate change scenarios,and to provide scientific support for the sustainable development of the basin and the decision-making of flood control and drought control.[Methods]Based on three CMIP6 global climate models,the SDSM downscaling model and SWAT hydrological model were constructed to predict the changes of temperature and precipitation in the Zishui Basin during 2030-2089 under SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios,and to further explore the response of runoff to climate change.[Results]Zishui Basin will present a significant warming and humidification trend in the future,and this trend will increase with the increase of discharge scenario.Spatially,the temperature rise of the whole basin is the largest in the vicinity of Xinning and Shaoyang stations.The increasing areas of precipitation mainly concentrate in the middle and lower reaches with Lengshuijiang as the center,while the decreasing area is located west of Dongkou station.In this context,the future annual runoff of Taojiang station and Shaoyang station will have the same variation trend with the watershed precipitation,and the amount of available water resources in the upstream area above Shaoyang station is more likely to decrease.Water resources in the basin will face the risk of more shortage in the dry season,and the flood season tends to advance,and the evenness of water resources allocation in the main flood season will increase.[Conclusion]Under the background of climate warming and humidification,the management of water resources in Zishui Basin will encounter more severe challenges,and the protection of water resources and the integrated management of Zishui Basin should be strengthened.关键词
CMIP6/气候变化/径流响应/资水流域/SDSM模型/SWAT模型Key words
CMIP6/climate change/runoff response/Zishui Basin/SDSM model/SWAT model分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
隆院男,张雨林,蒋昌波,莫军成,黄春福,宋昕熠..基于CMIP6的气候变化下资水流域径流响应研究[J].水土保持研究,2024,31(4):114-125,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(52079010) （52079010）
湖南省重点研发计划(2020SK2130) （2020SK2130）
湖南省研究生科研创新资助项目(CX20220910) （CX20220910）
湖南省水利科技项目(XSKJ2019081-09) （XSKJ2019081-09）
