水土保持研究2024，Vol.31Issue(4)：248-257,10.DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.04.034
黔中城市群生态系统服务价值评估及预测
Evaluation and Prediction of Ecosystem Service Value in Urban Agglomeration of Central Guizhou
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The aims of this study are to explore the response of ecosystem service value(ESV)to land use change,and to improve the sustainability of ecosystem service function in central Guizhou.[Methods]In this study,urban agglomeration of central Guizhou was taken as an example.Statistical analysis and spatial autocorrelation method were used to assess the land use change and ESV spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of urban agglomeration of central Guizhou from 2000 to 2020,and the spatial pattern of land use and its ESV change under different development scenarios in 2030 was predicted by coupling with PLUS model.[Results](1)The land use change in the study area from 2000 to 2020 was mainly manifested in the transformation of cropland and grassland to construction land and waters,and affected by the land use change,the ESV of the study area increased by 11.28 hundred million yuan from 2000 to 2020,showing a fluctuating upward trend,and the expansion of waters and construction land area was the main reason for the change of ESV in the study area.(2)The decrease area of ESV from 2000 to 2020 was mainly distributed in the center urban area with better economic development,and the increase area was mainly distributed near rivers,lakes and other waters.The spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the high and low agglomeration areas in the study area were widely distributed and strongly clustered,with the high and high agglomeration areas mainly concentrated in the northwestern part of the study area and the low and low agglomeration areas mainly concentrated in the central part of the study area.(3)The ESV under the nature scenario,cropland protection and ecological protection scenarios in 2030 are 710.22 hundred million,705.33 hundred million and 720.62 hundred million yuan,respectively,and the ecological protection scenario has an obvious positive effect on the growth of ESV in the study area.[Conclusion]In the future,the urban agglomeration of central Guizhou can continue to strengthen the policy of returning farmland to forests to improve the value of ecosystem services in terms of ecological environment,and it should formulate a more reasonable and comprehensive development strategy in terms of urban development,which can take into account ecological protection while the economy develops.关键词
黔中城市群/土地利用/PLUS模型/ESVKey words
urban agglomeration of central Guizhou/land use/PLUS model/ESV分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
李胡跃,戴全厚,胡泽银,桂鈺翔..黔中城市群生态系统服务价值评估及预测[J].水土保持研究,2024,31(4):248-257,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金"喀斯特碳酸盐岩与碎屑岩交互区坡面土壤侵蚀过程与机理"(42167044) （42167044）
