水土保持研究2024，Vol.31Issue(4)：258-265,8.DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.04.032
黄河流域土地生态安全时空演化分析及预测
Analysis and Prediction of Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Land Ecological Security in Yellow River Basin
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The aims of this study are to reveal the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of land ecological security in the Yellow River Basin,to clarify its deductive law,and to help accelerate the construction and development of ecological civilization in the Yellow River Basin.[Methods]Based on the statistical data from 2012 to 2021,58 cities in the Yellow River Basin were selected as the research unit,system of evaluation index was established,integrated entropy weight TOPSIS method and Moran index were used to explore the temporal and spatial evolution law,and grey prediction GM(1,1)model was used to explore future trend.[Results](1)In terms of time,the whole level of land ecological security was not high in Yellow River Basin,but showed a trend of good development year by year,and experienced an improvement from'sensitive level'to'good level'.(2)From the spatial distribution point of view,the land ecological security presented the characteristics of'large cohabitation and small aggregation',which always showed a step-shaped distribution pattern of'the highest level in downstream was,the medium level in the middle reaches,and the lowest level in upper reaches'.(3)The land ecological security of the Yellow River Basin had obvious positive correlation in space and significant agglomeration characteristics.Locally,the high safety values(H-H)were clustered in Shandong and Henan,the low safety value are clustered in Qinghai,Gansu and Shaanxi of the middle and upper reaches.(4)From 2022 to 2025,the land ecological security level will maintain a steady rise,and the land ecological security level will remain at'good level'.[Conclusion]The level of land ecological security in the Yellow River Basin continues to improve,but the overall level is not high,and land ecosystem governance and joint protection in the areas along the basin should be continually promoted.关键词
土地生态安全评价/黄河流域/熵权TOPSIS模型/灰色预测GM(1,1)Key words
land ecological security evaluation/Yellow River Basin/entropy weight TOPSIS model/grey pre-diction GM(1,1)分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
吴艳霞,邱乐..黄河流域土地生态安全时空演化分析及预测[J].水土保持研究,2024,31(4):258-265,8.基金项目
国家社会科学基金"新发展阶段黄河流域生态安全评估、预警及实现机制研究"(21BJY169) （21BJY169）
