水土保持研究2024，Vol.31Issue(4)：316-325,10.DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.04.043
北盘江流域社会生态系统脆弱性时空演变与模拟
Spatiotemporal Evolution and Simulation of Social-Ecological System Vulnerability in the Beipanjiang River Basin
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The aim of this study is to assess and model the vulnerability of social-ecological systems in the Beipanjiang River Basin,which is of great significance for building an ecological barrier in the upper reaches of the Pearl River and realizing sustainable development in the basin.[Methods]An explicit spatial vulnerability model was used to construct an evaluation index system from three dimensions,namely,exposure,sensitivity,and adaptive capacity,to assess the vulnerability of the Beipanjiang River Basin,and to simulate the vulnerability scenarios under different decision-making risks using an ordered weighted average operator.[Results](1)From 2000 to 2020,the vulnerability of the Beipanjiang River Basin decreased significantly,with the proportion of highly vulnerable areas decreasing from 13.82％to 8.37％,and the proportion of low vulnerable areas increasing from 10.66％to 17.62％.(2)The overall vulnerability of social-ecological system in the Beipanjiang River Basin in the past 20 years was at a medium level,accounting for 32％on average,and the spatial variation showed the distribution pattern of low level in the northwest and southeast,high level in the middle.(3)From the perspective of scenario simulation analysis,the attention should be paid to the stress of risk environment,the construction of ecological environment protection and adaptive capacity should be strengthened,and both development and protection in the economic priority model should be emphasized,green infrastructure to ease systemic fragility should be strengthened.[Conclusion]The degree of vulnerability of the Beipanjiang River Basin is significantly reduced,and the results of the scenario simulation can meet the needs of watershed development under the guidance of different policies and provide theoretical references for the ecological restoration of the land space in the Beipanjiang River Basin and the sustainable development of the region.关键词
社会生态系统/脆弱性/显式空间脆弱性模型/北盘江流域Key words
social-ecological system/vulnerability/spatially explicit resilience vulnerability/Beipanjiang River Basin分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
彭丽福,赵宇鸾,杨小飘..北盘江流域社会生态系统脆弱性时空演变与模拟[J].水土保持研究,2024,31(4):316-325,10.基金项目
贵州省自然科学基金重点项目"贵州喀斯特山区社会—生态系统演变与土地利用优化研究"(黔科合基础-ZK[2023]重点027) （黔科合基础-ZK[2023]重点027）
贵州科技创新基地建设项目"国家喀斯特石漠化防治与绿色发展技术创新中心"(黔科合中引地[2023]005) （黔科合中引地[2023]005）
