水土保持研究2024，Vol.31Issue(4)：383-394,12.DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.04.009
耦合景观生态安全格局的南京市"三生"空间多情景模拟
Multi-scenario Simulation of Production-Life-Ecology Space in Nanjing Coupled with Landscape Ecological Security Pattern
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The aims of this study are to clarify the coupling process between the landscape ecological security pattern and the multi-scenario simulation of the production-life-ecology space,and to provide reference for maintaining regional ecological security and optimizing the spatial development pattern of land.[Methods]As a constraint condition,landscape ecological security pattern was coupled to FLUS model.Four scenarios were set up by adjusting the cost of land conversion under different scenarios to predict the spatial structure and layout of production-life-ecology in target years(2025 and 2035).[Results]The scales of ecological land under low,medium and high security levels in Nanjing are 1 537.41,2 576.85,2 928.59 km2,respectively,the proportions to the total land area are 23.34％,39.12％and 44.46％,respectively.Compared to the other scenarios,the balanced development scenario maintains a certain degree of ecological security,various space changes tend to moderate.By 2025 and 2035,production space will only increase in 2.09 km2 and 2.02 km2,living space will increase in 28.55 km2 and 46.27 km2,and ecological space will decrease in 30.64 km2 and 48.29 km2.This scenario meets the demand of economic development for construction land,gives consideration to food security and ecological protection and promots the comprehensive,coordinated and sustainable development of economy,society and ecology.[Conclusion]Based on production-life-ecological balanced development,optimizing the development pattern of national land space is conducive to realizing intensive and efficient production space,livable and moderate living space,and beautiful ecological space.关键词
"三生"空间/景观生态安全格局/FLUS模型/情景模拟Key words
production-life-ecological space/landscape ecological security pattern/FLUS model/scenario simulation分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
陈振,郭杰,张雪微,何鸿飞,欧名豪..耦合景观生态安全格局的南京市"三生"空间多情景模拟[J].水土保持研究,2024,31(4):383-394,12.基金项目
教育部人文社会科学研究项目(23YJC630019) （23YJC630019）
国家自然科学基金(72174089) （72174089）
江苏高校哲学社会科学研究一般项目(2021SJA0088) （2021SJA0088）
南京邮电大学人文社会科学研究资助项目(NYY221037) （NYY221037）
