生态学杂志2024，Vol.43Issue(5)：1498-1508,11.DOI:10.13292/j.1000-4890.202405.040
耦合GMOP与FLUS模型的黄河流域甘肃段生态风险评估与预测
Assessment and prediction of ecological risk in Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin coupled with GMOP and FLUS models
摘要
Abstract
It is important to scientifically assess the ecological risk dynamics of Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin for ensuring ecological security,which has characteristics of critical ecological status,unique ecological re-sources,and fragile ecosystems.Based on land cover data in 2000,2010,and 2020,we coupled GMOP(Grey Multi-Objective Planning)and GeoSOS-FLUS models to examine the trend of ecological risk changes in this region from 2000 to 2020.We further predicted the land use pattern and ecological risk in 2030 under multiple scenarios.The standard deviation ellipse analysis and risk index centroid analysis were combined to explore the spatial varia-tions of ecological risks.The results showed that from 2000 to 2020,the area of woodland increased,that of grass-land shrank,and the construction land expanded rapidly.The ecological risk was mainly at low and moderate lev-els,with the ecological risk index increasing from 0.166 to 0.172.From 2020 to 2030,under the natural develop-ment scenario,the area of construction land will significantly increase,the area of grassland and cultivated land will decrease,the ecological risk level will increase,and the area of minor risk region will reduce by 8143.63 km2.Un-der the ecological protection scenario,the area of woodland will expand,the level of ecological risk will reduce,and the area of minor and low risk regions will increase by a total of 10552.17 km2.Under the economic develop-ment and comprehensive development scenarios,the total area of minor and low risk regions will increase by 7164.60 and 9708.15 km2,respectively.Compared with the natural development scenario,other three simulation scenarios exhibit the characteristics of extremely high risk region centroid migrating to the northwest,minor risk re-gion centroid migrating to the southwest,and extremely high risk regions gathering.The results can provide theoreti-cal basis for ecological risk prevention in Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin.关键词
景观生态风险/土地利用/GMOP模型/FLUS模型/多情景/黄河流域甘肃段Key words
landscape ecological risk/land use/GMOP model/FLUS model/multi-scenario/Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin引用本文复制引用
许静,廖星凯,甘崎旭,周茅先..耦合GMOP与FLUS模型的黄河流域甘肃段生态风险评估与预测[J].生态学杂志,2024,43(5):1498-1508,11.基金项目
国家社科基金项目(23BJY198)、甘肃省科技计划资助项目(20CX9ZA060)、甘肃省教育厅"双一流"科研重点项目(GSSYLXM-06)、兰州财经大学重点委托项目(Lzufe2021W-003)、兰州财经大学教学改革重点项目(2020-02)资助. （23BJY198）
