净水技术2024，Vol.43Issue(z1)：29-36,141,9.DOI:10.15890/j.cnki.jsjs.2024.s1.005
基于随机生存森林的供水管道漏损风险评估
Risk Assessment of Water Supply Pipe Leakage Based on Random Survival Forest
摘要
Abstract
The issue of water supply network leakage is receiving increasing attention,as pipe leakage not only leads to the waste of water resources but may also trigger urban safety incidents.Risk assessment for network leakage is an essential step for water utilities to control leakage.In the survival analysis of water supply pipes,pipes that do not leak are considered to be censored data,and pipes that are not leaking are also important when building a leakage risk assessment model.Capitalizing on the strengths of survival analysis in addressing the censored pipe data,this study built a leakage risk assessment model for the H City water supply network using the random survival forest algorithm.The results indicated that the model had good predictive accuracy,with a C-index of over 0.75.Moreover,the model enabled the precise identification of key factors of leakage,with inherent pipe attributed having a greater impact than environmental variables through the variable importance result.This study further analyzed the dynamic changes in leakage risk under different temperatures and rainfall conditions categorizing the predicted leakage risk into five levels.The findings revealed that under cold and dry climates,there was a highest number of pipes classified as risk levels Ⅱ and Ⅲ.This indicated that the probability of leakage occurrence in the water supply pipeline network was highest during winter dry weather.Additionally,the model predicted the survival probability of pipes at different ages in the future,showing that the number of leaking pipes in H City's water supply network will significantly increase after ten years.This research provided short-term and long-term leakage risk forecasts for water utilities,considering the impact of environmental factors on leakage,which could help in developing more precise pipe maintenance and renewal strategies.关键词
随机生存森林/生存分析/供水管网/风险评估/删失数据Key words
random survival forest/survival analysis/water supply network/risk assessment/censored data分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
周灵俊,陶涛,李建勤,姜成浩,葛震..基于随机生存森林的供水管道漏损风险评估[J].净水技术,2024,43(z1):29-36,141,9.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3208202) （2023YFC3208202）
