基于ISM-ANP的铁路外部环境安全隐患风险评价模型及应用OA北大核心

Safety hazards in the railway external environment are scattered in distribution,complex in types,and different in attributes,which brings challenges to their investigation and rectification.In order to realize the quantitative risk evaluation of safety hazards in the railway external environment,monomer hazard was taken as the research object.By analyzing the occurrence rules and accident cause mechanisms of risk events caused by safety hazards in the railway external environment,a universal risk evaluation index system for 18 major categories of safety hazards in the railway external environment was constructed.Interpretive structural model(ISM)was used to analyze the influence relationship among the various indicators and establish a hierarchical network structure.By combining the analytic network process(ANP)to determine the weight values of indicators,a geographic information system(GIS)was used to express the risk level of safety hazards in the railway external environment in a geographic space.The effectiveness of the evaluation model was verified by taking the color steel houses as an example.The results indicate that the model comprehensively considers the correlation information between hazard evaluation indicators and improves the evaluation accuracy compared with the calculation method of simple superposition of hazard attributes,providing a theoretical basis for further improving the decision-making of investigation and rectification work for safety hazards in railway external environment.