地铁列车冲突不确定性的预测模型及验证方法OA北大核心

An accurate and efficient prediction of conflicts between trains is the basis for dispatching in metro network.Therefore,predicting conflicts between trains over the request for operation resources accurately and efficiently has always been a constant research focus in the industry.The dynamic train running states lead to the probabilistic conflict between trains.In view of the commonly used method of predicting the certainty of conflicts between trains,this paper innovatively introduced a prediction method for the probabilistic conflicts between trains,and used the Sample Average Approximation(SAA)method to describe the dynamic train running state,thus describing the probabilistic train conflicts over the request for operation resources.Then,a prediction model for probabilistic train conflicts was proposed,with the scheme designed for verifying the accuracy of the prediction results.Finally,the study used the train record data of Nanjing Metro Line 3 for numerical example verification.The verification results show that the results of model prediction are of high accuracy.