现代情报2024，Vol.44Issue(7)：135-146,12.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1008-0821.2024.07.012
基金资助的科学产出评估和预测方法研究
Research on Evaluation and Prediction Methods for Scientific Outputs Supported by Grants
摘要
Abstract
[Purpose/Significance]The evaluation and prediction of scientific output of fund projects can help opti-mize the effectiveness of fund support and improve the quality of scientific research.It has certain theoretical and practical guidance significance for the optimization of layout direction and resource allocation of scientific research management de-partments.[Method/Process]Firstly,based on the LDA model,identified the research topics contained in the fund and its supporting papers;Then,five indicators were proposed:the amount of topic funding,the duration of topic funding,the popularity of topics,the quality of topics,and the influence of topics.A comprehensive evaluation model for science output topics supported by the fund was designed;On this basis,a scientific output topic prediction model was proposed based on deep learning algorithms;Finally,the paper took the data of the papers funded by the Department of Social and Economic Sciences of the National Science Foundation and its output as an example.[Result/Conclusion]Through empiri-cal research,it was found that the high-quality scientific output topics of the Department of Social and Economic Affairs of the National Science Foundation of the United States mainly include policy and environment,scientific research develop-ment and practice,and health and social development,verifying the feasibility and effectiveness of the method.[Innova-tion/Limitations]This study has certain theoretical and practical guidance significance for optimizing the effectiveness of fund funding,improving the quality of scientific research,optimizing the layout direction of scientific research management departments,and optimizing resource allocation.关键词
基金项目/科学产出/主题识别/评估模型/预测模型/美国国家科学基金/可视化Key words
fund project/scientific output/topic identification/evaluation model/prediction model/National Sci-ence Foundation of United States/visualization分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
刘自强,岳丽欣..基金资助的科学产出评估和预测方法研究[J].现代情报,2024,44(7):135-146,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目"基于主题扩散演化滞后的研究前沿识别及趋势预测研究"(项目编号:72104110) （项目编号:72104110）
江苏省双创博士项目(项目编号:JSSCBS20210319) （项目编号:JSSCBS20210319）
江苏高校哲学社会科学研究一般项目"基于神经网络嵌入的科学知识网络社区结构演化模式研究"(项目编号:2022SJYB0253) （项目编号:2022SJYB0253）
江苏省高等学校基础科学(自然科学)研究面上项目"学科领域知识生长中的研究主题扩张与收敛模式研究"(项目编号:1020220570). （自然科学）
