重庆市长寿区暴雨特征及基于"配料法"的暴雨预报模型研究OACSTPCD

This study investigated the characteristics of rainstorms in Changshou by analyzing conventional ground observations and high-altitude detection data from 2011 to 2018.The study analyzed physical parameters such as specific humidity,divergence,and vertical velocity,which were indicative of water vapor,dynamic,thermal,and unstable conditions during rainstorms.The study investigated the threshold values of physical parameters indicating the occurrence of rainstorms.An ingredients-based prediction model was developed,implemented,tested,and evaluated.The results indicate that:(1)Rainstorms predominantly occur in May and September.(2)The primary weather systems influencing rainstorms include upper-level troughs,surface cold fronts,southwest vortices,shear lines,and low-level jet streams,with occurrence frequencies decreasing in that order.About 32.1%of rainstorms were influenced by a combination of upper-level troughs,shear lines,southwest vortices,and surface cold fronts,while rainstorms rarely occurred in other weather system configurations.(3)The subjective prediction method based on Ingredients showed a 27%higher accuracy than the EC model,significantly reducing the false alarm rate compared to other models,and obtaining a 0.15 higher TS score than the EC model.(4)The objective prediction method based on Ingredients demonstrated a 16%higher accuracy than the EC model,and achieved a 0.03 higher TS score than the EC model.