基于LEAP模型的西安市交通污染物排放预测分析OACSTPCD

In order to explore the low-carbon development direction of the transportation sector,based on the LEAP model,a transportation energy and environment model for the road traffic sector in Xi'an was established to simulate the energy demand,CO2 and pollutant emission trends and emission reduction potential of the transportation sector under different scenarios in 2021-2050.The results show that the energy consumption and CO2 emissions under the low-carbon sce-nario(LC)peak around 2031,and the reduction rates in 2050 relative to the baseline scenario(BAU)are 32.62%and 30.21%,respectively.CO,NOx and PM10 all show good emission reduc-tion effects,and the reduction rates relative to BAU are 33.88%,36.27%and 40.33%,respec-tively.Among the sub-scenarios,the transportation structure adjustment scenario(TSA)con-tributes the most to energy conservation and emission reduction,followed by the green car scenar-io(GC)and the technical energy-saving scenarios(TES).In order to achieve carbon emission re-duction and pollutant emission control in the transportation sector,it is necessary to adjust the traffic structure,eliminate old models and vigorously develop public transportation,and constant-ly improve the corresponding infrastructure to increase the market share of new energy vehicles.