电力建设2024，Vol.45Issue(7)：12-24,13.DOI:10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2024.07.002
基于电力数据的经济景气指数模型研究与应用
Research and Application of Economic Prosperity-Index Model Based on Electricity Data
摘要
Abstract
Changes in electricity demand reflect the vibrancy of economic operations.Electricity data have advantages such as high accuracy,strong real-time capabilities,and predictability.This study calculates an economic-prosperity index based on electricity data to capture cyclical,economic changes from an electricity perspective.First,two indicators—the time-lagged correlation coefficient and the K-L information quantity—are used to identify leading,coincident,and lagging economic indicators.Indicator weight-division methods based on correlation coefficients and electricity consumption were used to construct a calculation model for the electricity data-based economic-prosperity index.We conducted empirical research on the electricity economic-prosperity index based on the economic-electricity data of a certain province.Finally,we predicted the future electricity-demand data of the province,calculated its future economic-prosperity index,and analyzed its future economic-development trend,based on the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)model.The results indicate that the economic prosperity-index calculation model based on electricity data can effectively reflect the trends of economic indicators through electricity data and can be used for future economic-development trend analysis.关键词
电力数据/经济景气指数/经济发展态势/季节性自回归移动平均(SARIMA)模型Key words
electricity data/economic prosperity index/economic development trend/seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)model分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
张雪婷,鲁肖龙,吴浩,宫嘉炜,李映雪,王敏,戴奇奇,鞠立伟..基于电力数据的经济景气指数模型研究与应用[J].电力建设,2024,45(7):12-24,13.基金项目
This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.72274060,No.71904049,No.72174062,No.72074074),Beijing Social Science Fund(No.23JCB039)and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.2024FR006). 国家自然科学基金项目(72274060,71904049,72174062,72074074) （No.72274060,No.71904049,No.72174062,No.72074074）
北京市社会科学基金项目(23JCB039) （23JCB039）
中央高校基本科研业务费哲学社会科学繁荣计划专项项目(2024FR006) （2024FR006）
