航天器工程2024，Vol.33Issue(3)：124-128,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-8748.2024.03.018
基于改进层次分析法的航天器量化风险分析方法
Study of Quantitative Risk Analysis Method for Spacecraft Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process
赵毅 1魏玉波 1赵林 1谢兆耕 2王临政3
作者信息
- 1. 中国空间技术研究院,北京 100094
- 2. 北京空间飞行器总体设计部,北京 100094
- 3. 北京卫星环境工程研究所,北京 100094
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Quantitative analysis and evaluation of spacecraft development risks can significantly en-hance the precision of resource allocation and risk control measures.To satisfy the current de-mands of spacecraft projects for quantified risk management,spacecraft risk identification and control of spacecraft should encompass the entire development process.This paper employs an enhanced Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)combined with Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method to present a method and process of risk analysis and evaluation.Using remote sensing satellite as a case study,a set of risk elements covering technology,cost,quality and manage-ment aspects is established based on project characteristics.Expert assessments are utilized to obtain a risk evaluation membership matrix,facilitating the scientific quantification of risk levels.Analysis is conducted on both inter-project and intra-project risk elements,with key control measures identified.In situations where risk factors increase and project numbers rise,the quan-titative risk analysis method provides managers with better decision support for comparing the se-verity of intra-project risks and allocating resources rationally.关键词
空间技术工程/风险管理/改进层次分析法/模糊综合评价法Key words
space technology engineering/risk management/analytic hierarchy process/fuzzy ana-lytic hierarchy process分类
航空航天引用本文复制引用
赵毅,魏玉波,赵林,谢兆耕,王临政..基于改进层次分析法的航天器量化风险分析方法[J].航天器工程,2024,33(3):124-128,5.
