基于改进层次分析法的航天器量化风险分析方法OA北大核心CSTPCD

Quantitative analysis and evaluation of spacecraft development risks can significantly en-hance the precision of resource allocation and risk control measures.To satisfy the current de-mands of spacecraft projects for quantified risk management,spacecraft risk identification and control of spacecraft should encompass the entire development process.This paper employs an enhanced Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)combined with Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method to present a method and process of risk analysis and evaluation.Using remote sensing satellite as a case study,a set of risk elements covering technology,cost,quality and manage-ment aspects is established based on project characteristics.Expert assessments are utilized to obtain a risk evaluation membership matrix,facilitating the scientific quantification of risk levels.Analysis is conducted on both inter-project and intra-project risk elements,with key control measures identified.In situations where risk factors increase and project numbers rise,the quan-titative risk analysis method provides managers with better decision support for comparing the se-verity of intra-project risks and allocating resources rationally.