湖泊科学2024，Vol.36Issue(4)：1232-1240,中插28-中插29,11.DOI:10.18307/2024.0453
上游干支流洪水相关性对下游洪水频率分布的影响
Impact of the correlation between the flood of upstream tributaries on the frequency distri-bution of downstream flood—A case study in Fuhe River of Lake Poyang
摘要
Abstract
Downstream flood in a large basin is generally caused by the superposition of upstream floods from different tributaries.There is certain correlation between the flood from upstream tributaries.To investigate the impact of the correlation between up-stream flood on the frequency distribution characteristics of downstream flood,the frequency distribution of downstream flood was derived using the law of total probability based on the construction of conditional distributions of floods for both upstream and down-stream conditions,as well as the joint probability distribution of flood variables in upstream tributaries.This study took the Fuhe River Basin in Jiangxi Province as the study area,and derived the flood frequency distribution at the Lijiadu hydrological station downstream from the Fuhe River using the joint probability distribution of flood variables from the Liaojiawan and Loujiacun stations in the upstream tributaries.The influence of the correlation of upstream flood variables on the downstream flood distribution was in-vestigated.The results showed that the proposed method has a good fit for the flood frequency distribution at the Lijiadu Station.The correlation of the upstream flood variables was found to be an important factor determining the downstream flood frequency distribu-tion.Specifically,the strength of correlation and tail correlation had no impact on the mean of flood frequency distribution,but had significant impact on higher-order statistical features such as skewness coefficient(Cv)and kurtosis coefficient(Cs).The Cv value of the downstream flood frequency distribution increased with the enhancement of the spatial correlation of upstream flood variables.A stronger upper-tail correlation resulted in larger values of both Cv and Cs.The increase in the strength of the correlation or upper-tail correlation of upstream flood variables led to a high flood risk of the basin.Extreme hydrological designs were more sensitive to changes in the correlation of upstream flood variables.关键词
洪水频率分布/洪水变量相关性/全概率公式/Copula函数/抚河Key words
Flood frequency distribution/dependence of flood variables/total probability formula/copula/Fuhe River引用本文复制引用
江聪,刘章君,温天福..上游干支流洪水相关性对下游洪水频率分布的影响[J].湖泊科学,2024,36(4):1232-1240,中插28-中插29,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52269003)、江西省鄱阳湖水资源与环境重点实验室开放研究基金项目(2020GPSYS06)和江西省主要学科学术和技术带头人培养计划青年人才项目(20212BCJ23016)联合资助. （52269003）
