工业技术经济2024，Vol.43Issue(7)：101-111,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-910X.2024.07.011
融合MD&A多维度语义的企业碳减排信用风险预警研究
Early Warning Research on Enterprise Carbon Emission Reduction Credit Risk by Integrating MD&A Multi-dimensional Semantics
摘要
Abstract
This paper takes manufacturing enterprises from 2011 to 2022 as an example,and introduces 10 kinds of MD&A semantic indicators,such as innovativeness,foresight,riskiness,etc.,into the early warning model of carbon emission reduction credit risk constructed based on machine learning algorithms,explores the changes of the model's prediction effect before and after the introduction,and reveals the decision logic process of early warning model using SHAP interpretable method.The study found that:(1)MD&A semantic indicators can significantly improve the prediction effect of carbon emission reduction credit risk early warning model,such as,the enhancement and reduction of assessment indicators in the range of 1%～11%,0.0029～0.1944,re-spectively.Compared with the semantic indicators,carbon emission reduction credit indicators are more obvious to improve the pre-diction effect of the model.(2)In terms of the overall carbon emission reduction credit risk early warning effect,XGBoost model is the best,followed by RF and SVM models,and LR model is the worst.(3)Net tone 1,innovativeness,and riskiness are the key semantic indicators affecting carbon emission reduction credit risk.When the net tone 1 and innovativeness indicators are larger,the probability that the model predicts a normal enterprise increases.When the riskiness indicator is larger,the probability that the model predicts a default enterprise increases.关键词
碳减排信用风险/制造型企业/MD&A/文本分析/机器学习/因子分析/SHAP/风险预警Key words
carbon emission reduction credit risk/manufacturing enterprise/MD&A/text analysis/machine learning/factor analysis/SHAP/risk early warning分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
陈湘州,龙志,滕熙玉..融合MD&A多维度语义的企业碳减排信用风险预警研究[J].工业技术经济,2024,43(7):101-111,11.基金项目
国家社会科学基金一般项目"持续调控背景下房地产市场利益分配协调机制及政策研究"(项目编号:13BJY057) （项目编号:13BJY057）
"生态产品价值实现超级基金的制度设计与运行机制研究"(项目编号:20BGL201) （项目编号:20BGL201）
湖南省社会科学基金一般项目"'双碳'目标下的我国企业碳资产价值转化机制研究"(项目编号:22YBA141). （项目编号:22YBA141）
