基于多算法分级权重集成的渤海西岸降水预报技术研究OA北大核心CSTPCD

Taking the precipitation forecasts in the west coast of the Bohai Sea(34°～43°N,111°～121°E)as the research scope,based on the observations of meteorological stations and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)global forecasting product during June‒September in 2019-2021,a Hierarchical-weight Consensus Forecasting(HCF)method is proposed by combining three objective‒correction forecasting algorithms and six ensemble statistical forecasting algorithms according to different weights.The HCF method is validated through the forecasts of a typical heavy rainy process in September 2021.The results are as follows:the TS scores of the HCF method are higher than those of the ECMWF forecasts on precipitation of 08:00～08:00 the next day in all precipitation levels.Compared with other precipitation forecasting products,the HCF method performs well on precipitation intensity and fall area,with the highest TS score in heavy rain and above on precipitation of 08:00～08:00 the next day and top-three TS score for other precipitation levels.In the case test,the HCF method performs better than the ECMWF forecasts in all precipitation levels,with an increase of 41.76％on the TS score of light rain and an increase of 54.42％on the TS score of heavy rain.