海洋预报2024，Vol.41Issue(3)：71-79,9.DOI:10.11737/j.issn.1003-0239.2024.03.008
基于多算法分级权重集成的渤海西岸降水预报技术研究
Research on coastal precipitation forecasting technology based on multi-algorithm hierarchical-weight integration
摘要
Abstract
Taking the precipitation forecasts in the west coast of the Bohai Sea(34°～43°N,111°～121°E)as the research scope,based on the observations of meteorological stations and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)global forecasting product during June‒September in 2019-2021,a Hierarchical-weight Consensus Forecasting(HCF)method is proposed by combining three objective‒correction forecasting algorithms and six ensemble statistical forecasting algorithms according to different weights.The HCF method is validated through the forecasts of a typical heavy rainy process in September 2021.The results are as follows:the TS scores of the HCF method are higher than those of the ECMWF forecasts on precipitation of 08:00～08:00 the next day in all precipitation levels.Compared with other precipitation forecasting products,the HCF method performs well on precipitation intensity and fall area,with the highest TS score in heavy rain and above on precipitation of 08:00～08:00 the next day and top-three TS score for other precipitation levels.In the case test,the HCF method performs better than the ECMWF forecasts in all precipitation levels,with an increase of 41.76％on the TS score of light rain and an increase of 54.42％on the TS score of heavy rain.关键词
沿海降水预报/分级权重集成/晴雨订正/个例检验Key words
coastal precipitation forecasts/hierarchical-weight consensus/clear-rainy correction/case test分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
侯敏,杨晓君,王彩霞,张楠,许长义,王国松..基于多算法分级权重集成的渤海西岸降水预报技术研究[J].海洋预报,2024,41(3):71-79,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(42205166) （42205166）
天津市海洋气象重点实验室开放基金项目(2020TKLOMYB02) （2020TKLOMYB02）
天津市气象局科研项目(202314ybxm09) （202314ybxm09）
中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2023-007). （FPZJ2023-007）
