海洋预报2024，Vol.41Issue(3)：98-109,12.DOI:10.11737/j.issn.1003-0239.2024.03.011
椒江沿海大风特征分析及精细化预报方法研究
Research on characteristic analysis and forecast method of gales in the Jiaojiang coastal area
摘要
Abstract
This paper analyzes the monthly and annual variation characteristics of gales in the Jiaojiang coastal area,studies its influencing factors and forecasting modes,and tests the EC fine-grid model gales forecasting product,based on the observational data from Dachen meteorological station,Jiaojiangkou and Yijiangshan automatic weather stations,the 6-hour reanalysis data at 1°×1° resolution from National Centers for Environmental Prediction,the EC fine-grid model data at 0.25°×0.25° resolution from European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts.The results show that cold air gales in winter is the majority of gales in the Jiaojiang coastal area.The pressure gradient and atmospheric circulation situation are two main influencing factors of cold air gales.A negative barotropic center over the Jiaojiang coastal area very likely leads to barotropic gale in the following 24～36 hours.Gales at the north side of cyclones can be divided into north trough south vortex type and low vortex shear type,while gales at the south side of cyclones can be divided into East Asia great trough type and coastal high type.The EC fine-grid model product has a certain degree of reference value on forecasting the northerly gales of cold air and cyclones.Compared to the observed maximum wind speed,the predicted wind speed is smaller in most cases.关键词
沿海大风/环流形势/变压/气旋环流/EC风场检验Key words
coastal gales/circulation situation/pressure gradient/cyclone circulation/EC fine-grid wind test分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
邱王泽禾,章蓝文..椒江沿海大风特征分析及精细化预报方法研究[J].海洋预报,2024,41(3):98-109,12.基金项目
台州市椒江区科技计划项目(202022). （202022）
