海洋预报2024，Vol.41Issue(3)：110-119,10.DOI:10.11737/j.issn.1003-0239.2024.03.012
EC细网格10m风场产品在青岛港区的预报检验和随机森林订正
Verification and Random Forest Correction of the EC fine-grid model 10 m wind in Qingdao Port
摘要
Abstract
The 10 m wind forecasts of the EC fine-grid model in Qingdao Port from March 2021 to February 2022 are validated and corrected.The results show that:In comparison with the observations from Dagang Wharf,Dongjiakou Port Automatic Station and Dongjiakou Port Buoy Station,the dispersion of biases in 10 m wind speed forecasts at lead time of 48 h is relatively small,and the median of biases in the forecasts is larger than 0,indicating that the wind speed forecasts are systematically larger than the observations.The 10 m wind speed forecasts at lead time of 24 h have a good correlation with the observations,and the correlation coefficients for the three stations are 0.76,0.73,and 0.82,respectively.The wind speed forecasts for each wind direction are relatively large in Dagang Wharf.When the observed wind direction is northeast and east,the root mean square error and average deviation of wind speed forecasts in Dagang Wharf are the largest.For Dongjiakou Port Automatic Station and Dongjiakou Port Buoy Station,small differences in the root mean square error of wind speed forecasts exist under different wind directions.The wind direction biases for the three stations mainly concentrate between-45 and 45°.Smaller actual wind speed is always associated with larger dispersion of bias in the wind direction forecasts.Using the Random Forest to correct the wind speed forecasts improves the accuracy of forecasts in Qingdao Port.关键词
EC细网格/10 m风/预报检验/随机森林/风速订正Key words
EC fine-grid model/10 m wind/forecast verification/Random Forest/wind speed correction分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
罗江珊,杨凡,毕玮,任兆鹏,于周讯..EC细网格10m风场产品在青岛港区的预报检验和随机森林订正[J].海洋预报,2024,41(3):110-119,10.基金项目
青岛市气象局青年专项项目(2021qdqxq11). （2021qdqxq11）
