电力系统保护与控制2024，Vol.52Issue(12)：69-81,13.DOI:10.19783/j.cnki.pspc.231656
"双碳"目标下基于系统动力学的发电行业碳减排政策研究
Carbon emission reduction policy in the power generation sector based on system dynamics with"dual carbon"targets
摘要
Abstract
Energy structure transformation and carbon emission reduction policies are important initiatives to realize the"dual-carbon"goal.This paper aims to explore the coupling role of carbon emission reduction policy and market trading mechanism in the power generation sector in a"dual-carbon"background.It studies the coupling and synergistic effect between the green certificate market trading,the carbon emission market trading and the power market mechanisms.It takes into account factors such as price influence inter-market mechanism,energy structure analysis and technological innovation,to set up a system dynamics model and carry out a multi-scenario simulation.This studies the impact of different combinations of policies on market equilibrium and carbon emission reduction in the power sector.Through the sensitivity analysis of the model,this paper evaluates the potential impact of various policy measures on system behavior,analyzes the mechanism of the policy system and its synergy mechanism,and clarifies the phenomena of redundant incentives and offsetting effect that may exist among different policies.It concludes that the effective combination of carbon emission reduction policies will enable the installed share of thermal power to fall to 45% in the next decade,and the share of renewable energy to exceed 50% to equal or even exceed that of traditional energy.It is suggested that the successful implementation of carbon emission reduction policies requires comprehensive consideration of market regulation,incentive mechanisms,technological innovation and other factors.关键词
碳减排/系统动力学/绿色证书/碳排放/电力市场Key words
carbon emission reduction/system dynamics/green certificate/carbon emission/electricity market引用本文复制引用
李璐,张泽端,毕贵红,阚小瑞,陈仕龙.."双碳"目标下基于系统动力学的发电行业碳减排政策研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2024,52(12):69-81,13.基金项目
This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52067009). 国家自然科学基金项目资助(52067009) （No.52067009）
国家重点研发计划项目资助(2022YFB2703500) （2022YFB2703500）
昆明理工大学课程思政内涵式建设项目资助(2021KS009) （2021KS009）
昆明理工大学在线开放课程(MOOC)建设项目资助(202107) （MOOC）
