"双碳"目标下基于系统动力学的发电行业碳减排政策研究OA北大核心CSTPCD

Energy structure transformation and carbon emission reduction policies are important initiatives to realize the"dual-carbon"goal.This paper aims to explore the coupling role of carbon emission reduction policy and market trading mechanism in the power generation sector in a"dual-carbon"background.It studies the coupling and synergistic effect between the green certificate market trading,the carbon emission market trading and the power market mechanisms.It takes into account factors such as price influence inter-market mechanism,energy structure analysis and technological innovation,to set up a system dynamics model and carry out a multi-scenario simulation.This studies the impact of different combinations of policies on market equilibrium and carbon emission reduction in the power sector.Through the sensitivity analysis of the model,this paper evaluates the potential impact of various policy measures on system behavior,analyzes the mechanism of the policy system and its synergy mechanism,and clarifies the phenomena of redundant incentives and offsetting effect that may exist among different policies.It concludes that the effective combination of carbon emission reduction policies will enable the installed share of thermal power to fall to 45% in the next decade,and the share of renewable energy to exceed 50% to equal or even exceed that of traditional energy.It is suggested that the successful implementation of carbon emission reduction policies requires comprehensive consideration of market regulation,incentive mechanisms,technological innovation and other factors.