人民长江2024，Vol.55Issue(6)：122-128,135,8.DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2024.06.017
CMIP6模式碳中和时期长江流域降水变化及成因分析
Precipitation changes over Changjiang River Basin under carbon neutrality period in CMIP6 models and its possible cause
摘要
Abstract
To reveal the precipitation anomaly over the Changjiang River Basin under carbon neutrality period,we defined the carbon neutrality period in CMIP6 models,analyzed the average and extreme precipitation differences between the carbon neutrali-ty period and the reference period for climate change amplitude,and gave its possible causes from the atmospheric circulation a-nomalies.The results showed that:① The carbon neutrality year is 2062 under the SSP-2.6 scenario,which is consistent with the carbon neutrality policy of China.② After the spatial downscaling and bias revision,the CMIP6 models can well simulate the precipitation in the Changjiang River Basin.③ During the carbon neutrality period,the average precipitation over the Changjiang River Basin increases significantly with larger anomalies in the north(upper reaches)than in the south(lower and middle rea-ches),and the order in seasons is spring>summer>autumn>winter.Especially,the anomalies over the Minjing River,Tuojiang River,and Jialing River are the maximum center in all seasons,which need special attention in the future.Continuous drought days decrease over the middle reaches of Changjiang River Basin,extreme heavy rain days significantly increase by 2.4～4.0 days over the north,and extreme heavy rain intensity enhances over the upper and lower reaches.④ The easterly and southeasterly anoma-lies over south and northwest of the Bohai Sea anticyclone in winter,spring,and autumn bring warm and moist flow from the cen-tral and western Pacific to the Changjiang River Basin,which favors the precipitation during the carbon neutrality.Meanwhile,the southwesterly anomaly,conveying warm and moist flow from the Bay of Bengal,contributes to the positive precipitation anomaly in summer.These results can provide a basis for relevant departments in the Changjiang River Basin to develop climate change re-sponse strategies for the future carbon neutrality period.关键词
降水变化/碳中和/CMIP6/SSP-2.6/长江流域Key words
precipitation variation/carbon neutrality/CMIP6/SSP-2.6/Changjiang River Basin分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
张乐英,邢雯慧,侯书秀,齐道日娜..CMIP6模式碳中和时期长江流域降水变化及成因分析[J].人民长江,2024,55(6):122-128,135,8.基金项目
中国长江三峡集团有限公司科研项目(Z432302004) （Z432302004）
南京林业大学人才启动项目(GXL2018040) （GXL2018040）
国家自然科学基金青年项目(42005033) （42005033）
