水土保持学报2024，Vol.38Issue(3)：266-275,10.DOI:10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.03.026
未来10年珠江流域土地利用多情景模拟及碳储量评估
Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use and Carbon Storage Assessment in the Pearl River Basin in the Next Decade
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The temporal and spatial changes of land use and carbon storage in the Pearl River Basin in the past 20 years and the next 10 years were analyzed in order to provide a reference for the optimization of land use pattern and ecosystem carbon sequestration management in the Pearl River Basin.[Methods]Based on the land use data of 2002,2012,and 2022,this paper analyzed the changes of land use types,used the PLUS model to simulate the land use pattern under the natural development scenario,cultivated land protection scenario and ecological protection scenario in 2032,and used the InVEST model to evaluate the changes of ecosystem carbon storage under the three scenarios.[Results]The land types in the Pearl River Basin have changed greatly in the past 20 years,and the one-way conversion of cultivated land to construction land and the two-way conversion between cultivated land and forest land were the main characteristics of land use change in the Pearl River Basin.During the same period,the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems showed a downward trend as a whole,with a decrease of 0.52％.The carbon storage projection in 2032 shows that the carbon storage under the ecological protection scenario is significantly higher than that under the cultivated land protection scenario and the natural development scenario,which are 4.81 ×106 and 10.22 ×106 t higher,respectively.[Conclusion]Therefore,when formulating land use planning in the future,decision-makers should consider the balance between economic development and ecological protection,strengthen the concept of ecological protection and green development in river basins,increase the function of land carbon storage,and help achieve the"double carbon"goal and regional sustainable development.关键词
珠江流域/土地利用/PLUS模型/碳储量Key words
the Pearl River Basin/land use/PLUS model/carbon storage分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
兰健,渠立权..未来10年珠江流域土地利用多情景模拟及碳储量评估[J].水土保持学报,2024,38(3):266-275,10.基金项目
国家自然科学青年基金项目(42101256) （42101256）
