基于类比分析法的光伏电站发电能力评估模型研究OA

In the process of feasibility evaluation in the early stage of PV power station construction,it is necessary to theoretically predict the power generation capacity of the proposed PV power station,in order to calculate the investment return rate of the project and evaluate whether the project is worth investing in for construction.The accuracy of power generation capacity evaluation of PV power stations is limited by the accuracy of meteorological data and the evaluation accuracy of performance ratio(PR)of PV power station.Due to the high complexity of the environment and the difficulty of actual measurement,it is impossible to obtain true meteorological data and accurate PR value of the proposed PV power station.This paper takes the surrounding PV power stations of the proposed PV power station as a reference,introduces the historical power generation data of the reference PV power station,and combines the solar radiation difference and PR difference between the reference PV power station and the proposed PV power station to propose a power generation capacity evaluation model of PV power station based on analogical analysis method.By establishing an evaluation model to decouple the impact of meteorological data deviation on the PR of PV power stations,the deviation range of the evaluation model caused by each factor is analyzed,and the accuracy of the evaluation model is verified using power generation data of three sets of PV power stations control groups.The research results show that the maximum impact of meteorological factor deviation on the PR of PV power stations is 1.5972%.The evaluation deviation of the annual equivalent utilization hours of the three sets of PV power station control groups calculated using this evaluation model is controlled within 3.00%,with an average deviation of 1.21%,which is much lower than the average deviation of the annual equivalent utilization hours calculated by PVsyst software.This indicates that the evaluation model has good accuracy and can be used as a practical and effective method for evaluating the power generation capacity of PV power stations during construction.