中国人口·资源与环境2024，Vol.34Issue(5)：69-79,11.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20240333
气候变化和人类活动对中国生态敏感性的影响分析与改善路径
Impact of climate change and human activities on ecological sensitivity in China and its improvement paths:based on response surface methodology
摘要
Abstract
Ecological sensitivity is the degree to which an ecosystem responds to external disturbances.Climate change and increasing-ly intensified human activities have individually or interactively influenced regional ecological sensitivity,which has in turn exposed the overall or regional population,resources,and environmental problems.Therefore,clarifying the impact of climate change and hu-man activities on ecological sensitivity and making graded improvements are conducive to enhancing the resilience and sustainable de-velopment of the regional ecological environment.This study focused on 31 provinces in China and constructed a climate change,hu-man activity,and ecological sensitivity indicator system based on meteorological,remote sensing,and statistical data from 2001 to 2020.Response surface methodology(RSM)was used to explore the impact of single factors and interactions between climate change and human activities on ecological sensitivity.Based on the composite sensitivity values that include ecological and climate sensitivity,this study divided the optimization zone,control zone,and governance zone and explored the improvement paths of the governance zone with high comprehensive sensitivity to climate and ecology.The results showed that:① The national ecological sensitivity value fluctu-ated and decreased over time,decreasing by 2.2%from 2001 to 2020.The overall spatial distribution showed a pattern of'high in the west and low in the east,high in the north and low in the south.'The number of provinces with severe sensitivity and above continued to decrease,with a decrease of 7.1%in 2020 compared to 2001.② The main influencing factors varied in different regions.In terms of single factors,the proportion of provinces whose regional ecological sensitivity was affected by economic development,climate change,and population size was 77.4%,67.7%,and 54.8%,respectively.In the analysis of interactions between economic development,climate change,and population size,the percentage of negative interaction effects was 69.6%,indicating that changes in one of most of the influ-encing factors had a reverse effect on the ecological sensitivity effect of another factor.③ To reduce the negative impact of climate change on ecological sensitivity,it is necessary to coordinate economic development or population growth in a targeted manner to ensure sustainable economic and social development within the ecological carrying capacity of places with different natural conditions or devel-opment rates in the governance areas.关键词
生态敏感性/气候变化/人类活动/响应曲面法Key words
ecological sensitivity/climate change/human activities/response surface methodology分类
环境科学引用本文复制引用
安敏,韦雅倩,何伟军,方雪,黄进..气候变化和人类活动对中国生态敏感性的影响分析与改善路径[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2024,34(5):69-79,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年项目"环境规制下三峡库区水污染负荷精细测度与分配优化策略研究"(批准号:72004116) （批准号:72004116）
湖北省自然科学基金面上项目"湖北省减污降碳协同增效的研究规律与区域联动优化策略"(批准号:2022CFB292) （批准号:2022CFB292）
三峡库区生态环境教育部工程研究中心开放基金课题"精细尺度下三峡库区碳排放与生态系统服务价值协同优化研究"(批准号:KF2022-07). （批准号:KF2022-07）
