广西医科大学学报2024，Vol.41Issue(5)：734-741,8.DOI:10.16190/j.cnki.45-1211/r.2024.05.014
基于临床及影像学资料构建胰腺癌患者生存率的预测模型
Construction of a prediction model of survival rate of pancreatic cancer patients based on clinical and imaging data
摘要
Abstract
Objective:To explore the independent prognostic factors of pancreatic cancer patients and establish a survival prediction model.Methods:The data of 141 patients with pancreatic cancer diagnosed in the First Affili-ated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University from January 2020 to December 2021 were analyzed retrospective-ly.The clinical data of 44 patients with pancreatic cancer diagnosed in Guangxi Medical University Cancer Hospi-tal from June 2022 to December 2023 were collected as external validation.Log-rank test and Cox proportional hazards model were used to conduct single factor and multiple factor analysis to obtain independent prognostic factors of pancreatic cancer.A nomogram prediction model was constructed based on the results of multiple fac-tor analysis.The consistency index(C-index),receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,calibrate curve,and decision curve analysis(DCA)were calculated to validate and evaluate the prediction model.Results:The medi-an survival time of pancreatic cancer patients was 7 months(95%CI:5.5-8.5),the half-year survival rate was 55.2%,and the one-year survival rate was 29.5%.Cox regression analysis model of single factor and multiple fac-tor showed that the age of onset,tumor stage,treatment mode,carbohydrate antigen 125(CA 125),carbohydrate antigen 19-9(CA 19-9)values of patients with pancreatic cancer were independent influencing factors of long-term survival time(P＜0.05).Conclusion:The prognosis of pancreatic cancer patients is poor.The age of onset,tumor stage,treatment mode,CA125,and CA19-9 of ancreatic cancer are related to the survival prognosis.The construction of a nomogram for predicting half-year and one-year survival rates has good predictive ability,cali-bration and clinical practicability.关键词
胰腺癌/预后分析/列线图Key words
pancreatic cancer/prognostic analysis/nomogram分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
蒋异凡,汤绍梅,覃山羽..基于临床及影像学资料构建胰腺癌患者生存率的预测模型[J].广西医科大学学报,2024,41(5):734-741,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(No.82260539) （No.82260539）
