宁夏电力Issue(3)：14-20,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-3643.2024.03.003
极端天气下基于时间卷积神经网络的新能源出力评估策略
An evaluation strategy for renewable energy output under extreme weather conditions using a temporal convolutional neural network
摘要
Abstract
Against the backdrop of high penetration rates of renewable energy,the abrupt reduction in output caused by extreme weather conditions poses a significant challenge to the safe operation of the power system.Therefore,accurately assessing the depth of renewable energy output under extreme weather conditions is crucial for formulating operational strategies for the power system.This paper proposes a new method to evaluate renewable energy output using an improved deep temporal convolutional network(DeepTCN)approach.By designing a temporal convolutional neural network(CNN)architecture with dynamically weighted inputs,this method precisely quantifies and estimates the impact of extreme weather on renewable energy output,providing risk assessment information for formulating the operation mode of power systems under extreme weather conditions.Calculation results on the actual renewable energy output dataset of the power system show that,compared with conventional time series prediction methods,the proposed method can improve the normalized root mean square error,symmetric mean absolute percentage error,and mean absolute scaled error indicators by 1.2,0.1,and 0.22,respectively.Therefore,this approach enables a more accurate evaluation of renewable energy output under extreme weather conditions.关键词
极端天气/时间卷积神经网络/非参数估计/新能源出力Key words
extreme weather conditions/temporal convolutional neural network/non-parametric estimation/renewable energy output分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
杨龙,秦建翔,杨波,高海洋,李金东..极端天气下基于时间卷积神经网络的新能源出力评估策略[J].宁夏电力,2024,(3):14-20,7.基金项目
国网宁夏电力有限公司科技项目(5229NX220027) （5229NX220027）
