水力发电2024，Vol.50Issue(7)：106-110,115,6.
极值BMM模型与POT模型对面板堆石坝安全监控指标拟定的比较研究
Comparative Study of Extreme BMM Model and POT Model on the Formulation of Safety Monitoring Indicators of Panel Rockfill Dam
孙锡山 1李铮 2孙亚运3
作者信息
- 1. 云南农业大学水利学院,云南 昆明 650051
- 2. 南京水利科学研究院,江苏 南京 210018
- 3. 安徽天翰工程有限责任公司,安徽 马鞍山 243000
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
The application of extreme BMM model and POT model in the extreme value theory on the formulation of dam safety monitoring indicators are studied.By referring to the concepts of quantile and extreme risk(VaR)value in economics,the corresponding values are calculated according to the corresponding formula for quantitative comparison and analysis.The results show that both extreme BMM model and POT model can reflect the extreme risk of data at high confidence level.At 99％confidence level,the VaR values of both models are greater than those at 95％confidence level.At 99％confidence level,the VaR value calculated by extreme BMM model is larger than that under POT model,and close to the proposed index,indicating that the VaR value under extreme BMM model can better reflect the extreme state of data.In terms of indicator formulation,the extreme value BMM model is more suitable for the formulation of warning indicators within the data range,while the POT model indicator formulation results are beyond the sample data itself,with certain predictability,suitable for the formulation of prediction indicators of sample data.关键词
BMM模型/POT模型/分位数/VaR值/μ值/指标拟定Key words
BMM model/POT model/quantile/VaR value/µ value/indicator formulation分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
孙锡山,李铮,孙亚运..极值BMM模型与POT模型对面板堆石坝安全监控指标拟定的比较研究[J].水力发电,2024,50(7):106-110,115,6.
