极值BMM模型与POT模型对面板堆石坝安全监控指标拟定的比较研究OACSTPCD

The application of extreme BMM model and POT model in the extreme value theory on the formulation of dam safety monitoring indicators are studied.By referring to the concepts of quantile and extreme risk(VaR)value in economics,the corresponding values are calculated according to the corresponding formula for quantitative comparison and analysis.The results show that both extreme BMM model and POT model can reflect the extreme risk of data at high confidence level.At 99％confidence level,the VaR values of both models are greater than those at 95％confidence level.At 99％confidence level,the VaR value calculated by extreme BMM model is larger than that under POT model,and close to the proposed index,indicating that the VaR value under extreme BMM model can better reflect the extreme state of data.In terms of indicator formulation,the extreme value BMM model is more suitable for the formulation of warning indicators within the data range,while the POT model indicator formulation results are beyond the sample data itself,with certain predictability,suitable for the formulation of prediction indicators of sample data.