生态学报2024，Vol.44Issue(12)：5194-5205,12.DOI:10.20103/j.stxb.202305291139
气候变化对丹顶鹤秋季迁徙路线潜在生境适宜性的影响
Impacts of climate change on potential habitat suitability of red-crowned cranes in the autumn migration
摘要
Abstract
As a result of global climate warming,the habitat of endangered waterfowl has been threatened such as the red-crowned cranes.Due to the limitation of the monitoring methods and techniques,the spatial distribution extent of potential habitat in the migration routes of red-crowned crane is unclear,and the impact mechanism of climate change on habitat suitability of red-crowned cranes in migration routes needs to be further studied.On the basis of 138 red-crowned crane samples and 19 environmental variables,an ensemble model was constructed to assess the habitat suitability of the red-crowned cranes in the autumn migration routine of East Asia based on the BIOMOD2 software package.Under the future climate trends of SSP1.2-6,the suitable red-crowned cranes habitats in four different periods(2021——2040,2041——2060,2061——2080,2081——2100)were predicted.The results showed that:(1)The ensemble BIOMOD2 model produced more accurate simulated results compared with the single species distribution model.The most important environmental factors which affected the habitat suitability of red-crowned cranes were elevation above sea level and diurnal temperature range.(2)The simulated area of suitable habitat in the migration route of red-crowned crane is 5.23×105 km2 at present.Under the impacts of climate changes,the potential suitable habitat area will reduce to 2.60×105 km2,2.58×105 km2,2.75×105 km2,2.56×105 km2 in 2021——2040,2041——2060,2081——2080,and 2081——2100,respectively.The area of potential suitable habitats in the migration route will decrease with a range of 8.94%and 14.39%in the future.(3)The predicted suitable habitats in the migration route were mainly distributed in the Zhalong wetland reserve in Heilongjiang Province,the coastal areas along the lower reaches of Liaoning Province,the Bohai Rim,the Yellow River Delta nature reserve in Shandong Province,the Yancheng wetland reserve in Jiangsu Province,the Yellow River and Danjiang wetland reserves in Henan Province,and Shengjin Lake wetland reserve in Anhui Province.The future distribution pattern of suitable habitats is similar to the current distribution pattern of red-crowned crane,and the habitats connectivity between the northeast and the middle of the migration route will decrease significantly.Different kinds of suitable habitats tended to shrink in a large extent,and the decreased habitats was much more than that of the increased habitats.This study is important for the simulation of potential suitable habitats in the migration routes of the endangered waterfowl,and it will be benefit for the conservation and restoration of the endangered waterfowls′ habitats under the background of global climate change.关键词
丹顶鹤/迁徙路径/集成物种分布模型/适宜生境/气候变化Key words
red-crowned crane/migration route/ensemble species distribution model/suitable habitat/climate change引用本文复制引用
张博鑫,李崇林,左小康,那晓东..气候变化对丹顶鹤秋季迁徙路线潜在生境适宜性的影响[J].生态学报,2024,44(12):5194-5205,12.基金项目
黑龙江省优秀青年科学基金项目资助(YQ2020D005) （YQ2020D005）
黑龙江省大学生创新创业项目资助(S202210231033) （S202210231033）
