基于MaxEnt优化模型对不同时期金银忍冬潜在适生区动态模拟分析OA北大核心CSTPCD

We use the optimized MaxEnt model to analyze the potential suitable regions of Lonicera maackii under historical(the Last Glacial Maximum,the Mid-Holocene),current and future climate conditions in 2050 and 2070 years based on 58 ecological factors.The model results show that:In the current climate background,the AUC value is greater than 0.9,and the continuous Boyce Index(CBI)value is 0.998,indicating that the simula-tion results are reliable.The main factors affecting the potential distribution of L.maackii were mean temperature(bio09)of driest quarter,soil classification(SU_CODE)and the mean UV-B(uvb3)of highest month.The highly and optimal suitable regions for the present distribution covered Northeast Yunnan,central Sichuan,western Hubei,eastern Chongqing,eastern Gansu,Shaanxi,western Henan,southwest Shanxi,which accounted for 4.43％of national total area.Overall,future climate change will be conducive to the expansion of L.maackii suitable re-gions.From the last glacial maximum to the present,the suitable regionsof L.maackii move to the northeast,in the future,the suitable regions of L.maackii tend to move to the north and shrink in the southwest,and the optimal suitable area is seriously lost.It is recommended to strengthen the protection of the optimal suitable regions,In the newly suitable regions,the relocation conservation method can be considered to carry out reasonable artificial in-troduction and cultivation.