舰船非接触水下爆炸系统的混合不确定度量化OA北大核心CSTPCD

[Objectives]Substantial epistemic and aleatory uncertainties coexist in the modeling and simula-tion(M&S)of ship non-contact underwater explosion(UNDEX).Such uncertainties can lead to large devi-ations between the numerical results and true experimental data for system response quantity(SRQ),which can deteriorate M&S performance.However,the uncertainty quantification(UQ)of non-contact UNDEX can improve the reliability and credibility of M&S.[Methods]First,the D-S theory of evidence(DSTE)com-bined with subject matter expert(SME)opinion is utilized to obtain the basic belief assignment(BBA)func-tion and value interval of the phenomenological parameters,which have no physical meaning and cannot be directly calibrated through physical experiments.In view of the constraints of engineering experience and knowledge structure of SME,the multiple source fusion and periodic fusion methods are used to further im-prove the objectivity of the epistemic UQ.Furthermore,the Monte Carlo method is applied to study the high-dimensional uncertainty propagation of the non-contact UNDEX of the ship.Finally,the double-loop method is applied in the mixed UQ when the ship non-contact UNDEX is disturbed by both aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty;to be specific,the phenomenological parameters are solved in the outer loop and the aleatory uncertainty is handled in the inner loop.[Results]The results show that the range of epistemic un-certainty is shortened and the initial opinion of SME substantially altered.The BBA of epistemic uncertainty computed from altered DSTE becomes more accurate and objective.The credible confidence interval of SRQ and corresponding BBA function in the non-contact UNDEX calculation can be obtained by double loop ap-proach,and the results indicate that it agrees with the common sense.[Conclusion]This study can provide guiding references for ship protection design and improve the explosive damage power of underwater weapons.