女性迟发性痤疮的危险因素分析及列线图预测模型的建立OACSTPCD

Objective To analyze the risk factors of female delayed acne vulgaris(FDAV),and to construct a nomogram prediction model of FDAV.Methods From May 2020 to May 2022,200 FDAV patients and 200 healthy volunteers who visited the dermatology clinic of Tangshan Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital were selected,surveys were implemented through self-made questionnaires according to the reference literature,Logistic regression analysis was applied to screen the risk factors affecting the occurrence of FDAV;R software was used to build a nomogram model for predicting the risk of FDAV,and Bootstrap method was used for internal verification,verification set was used for external verification,ROC curve and calibration curve were carried out to evaluate the prediction efficiency of nomogram model.Results Logistic regression analysis showed that sleep time of＜8 h[95%CI(2.701-8.034),P＜0.001],computer time of≥3 h/d[95%CI(2.836-8.733),P＜0.001],alcohol consumption[95%CI(1.354-5.602),P=0.005]and family history[95%CI(1.534-5.443),P=0.001]were independent risk factors for FDAV.The area under the ROC curve was 0.785[95%CI(0.702-0.868)].The slope of the calibration curve was close to 1,and the H-L goodness of fit test showed χ2=6.141,P=0.189.The external verification results showed that the slope of the calibration curve was close to 1,and the area under the ROC curve was 0.872[95%CI(0.817-0.927)].Conclusion FDAV is related to sleep time of＜8 h,computer use time of≥3 h/d,alcohol consumption,and family history.The nomogram prediction model constructed based on the above four independent risk factors has good predictive performance in predicting the occurrence of FDAV.