中国医学前沿杂志（电子版）2024，Vol.16Issue(6)：24-30,7.DOI:10.12037/YXQY.2024.06-05
基于合并症的住院慢性阻塞性肺疾病患者死亡风险预测模型及验证
Comorbidity-based prediction model and validation of mortality risk in hospitalized chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients
摘要
Abstract
Objective To develop and validate a nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality risk in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD).Methods The retrospective analysis was conducted on 1 110 patients with COPD who were hospitalized in the Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine of Peking University Third Hospital from January 1 st,2017 to August 1 st,2022.The patients were randomly divided into a training set(777 patients)and a validation set(333 patients).Risk factors for in-hospital mortality in patients with COPD were analyzed using univariate and multivariate logistic analyses in the training se.t Nomogram prediction models were then developed and evaluated by nomogram prediction model,using the receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC)and area under curve(AUC).Results Emergency admission,tachycardia,respiratory infection,arrhythmia,hypoproteinemia and chronic kidney disease were associated with in-hospital mortality in patients with COPD.The nomogram demonstrated good discriminatory power with an AUC of 0.899 in the training set and 0.871,respectively in the validation set,indicating good discriminative ability.Conclusions The nomogram can effectively predict in-hospital mortality in patients with COPD.关键词
慢性阻塞性肺疾病/合并症/预测模型Key words
Pulmonary disease,chronic obstructive/Comorbidity/Prediction model引用本文复制引用
胡淑婷,陈海杰,张静..基于合并症的住院慢性阻塞性肺疾病患者死亡风险预测模型及验证[J].中国医学前沿杂志（电子版）,2024,16(6):24-30,7.基金项目
2022 Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Education Research Project(MBZX0012022028004) （MBZX0012022028004）
China Internal Medical foundation Young Practical Program on Respiratory Diseases(Z-2017-24-2301) （Z-2017-24-2301）
Non-profit Central Research Institute Fund of Chinese Academy of Medical Science(2020-PT320-005) （2020-PT320-005）
The Clinical Cohort Construction Program of Peking University Third Hospital(BYSYDL2021013) 2022 年度慢性病防治与健康教育科研(MBZX0012022028004) （BYSYDL2021013）
中华国际医学交流基金会呼吸疾病青年实用研究项目(Z-2017-24-2301) （Z-2017-24-2301）
中央级公益性科研院所科研业务项目(2020-PT320-005) （2020-PT320-005）
北京大学第三医院院队列项目 B类(BYSYDL2021013) （BYSYDL2021013）
