基于合并症的住院慢性阻塞性肺疾病患者死亡风险预测模型及验证OA北大核心CSTPCD
Comorbidity-based prediction model and validation of mortality risk in hospitalized chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients
目的 采用列线图构建住院慢性阻塞性肺疾病(chronic obstructive pulmonary disease,COPD)患者的死亡风险预测模型并加以验证.方法 回顾性分析 2017 年 1 月 1 日至 2022 年 8 月 1 日期间于北京大学第三医院呼吸与危重症医学科住院的 1 110 例COPD患者的临床结局.采用随机抽样方法将纳入患者按照 7︰3 的比例分为训练集(777 例)及验证集(333 例).在训练集中通过单、多因素 Logistic回归分析COPD患者住院期间死亡的危险因素并建立列线图预测模型.通过受试者操作特征曲线(receiver operating characteristic curve,ROC 曲线)及曲线下面积(area under the curve,AUC)评估所建立模型.结果 急诊入院、心率大于 100 次/min、呼吸系统感染、心律失常、低蛋白血症、慢性肾脏病与 COPD患者住院期间死亡相关,据此建立的列线图在训练集及验证集中 AUC分别为 0.899 和 0.871,判别能力较好.结论 本研究建立的列线图预测模型可以较好地预测COPD患者住院期间死亡的风险.
Objective To develop and validate a nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality risk in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD).Methods The retrospective analysis was conducted on 1 110 patients with COPD who were hospitalized in the Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine of Peking University Third Hospital from January 1 st,2017 to August 1 st,2022.The patients were randomly divided into a training set(777 patients)and a validation set(333 patients).Risk factors for in-hospital mortality in patients with COPD were analyzed using univariate and multivariate logistic analyses in the training se.t Nomogram prediction models were then developed and evaluated by nomogram prediction model,using the receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC)and area under curve(AUC).Results Emergency admission,tachycardia,respiratory infection,arrhythmia,hypoproteinemia and chronic kidney disease were associated with in-hospital mortality in patients with COPD.The nomogram demonstrated good discriminatory power with an AUC of 0.899 in the training set and 0.871,respectively in the validation set,indicating good discriminative ability.Conclusions The nomogram can effectively predict in-hospital mortality in patients with COPD.
胡淑婷;陈海杰;张静
内蒙古自治区人民医院 呼吸与危重症医学科,内蒙古自治区 呼和浩特 010010北京大学第三医院 呼吸与危重症医学科,北京 100191
慢性阻塞性肺疾病合并症预测模型
Pulmonary disease,chronic obstructiveComorbidityPrediction model
《中国医学前沿杂志（电子版）》 2024 (006)
24-30 / 7
2022 Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Education Research Project(MBZX0012022028004);China Internal Medical foundation Young Practical Program on Respiratory Diseases(Z-2017-24-2301);Non-profit Central Research Institute Fund of Chinese Academy of Medical Science(2020-PT320-005);The Clinical Cohort Construction Program of Peking University Third Hospital(BYSYDL2021013) 2022 年度慢性病防治与健康教育科研(MBZX0012022028004);中华国际医学交流基金会呼吸疾病青年实用研究项目(Z-2017-24-2301);中央级公益性科研院所科研业务项目(2020-PT320-005);北京大学第三医院院队列项目 B类(BYSYDL2021013)
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