电力系统自动化2024，Vol.48Issue(13)：109-119,11.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20230421001
考虑电池老化的电动汽车中长期充电负荷预测方法
Medium-and Long-term Charging Load Forecasting Method for Electric Vehicles Considering Battery Aging
摘要
Abstract
As the market share of electric vehicles continues to grow annually,the proportion of electric vehicle charging load limited by the capacity of power battery in the region to the total electricity load continues to increase.To this end,this paper proposes a medium-and long-term charging load forecasting method for electric vehicles considering battery aging.First,a total capacity forecasting model for electric vehicle batteries in the rigion considering battery aging is constructed to forecast the total capacity attenuation caused by battery aging,as well as the total capacity increase caused by the replacement with new batteries and the growth in the number of the vehicles.Then,an estimation model for the aging characteristics of power batteries considering temperature changes is constructed to estimate the maximum capacity,rechargeable capacity and driving range of the battery after each charging cycle.When the maximum capacity of the battery is insufficient to ensure the safe operation of the vehicle,it is replaced with a new one.Finally,a vehicle behavior simulation model considering charging costs is constructed to simulate both vehicle travel and charging processes.By using the fuzzy C-means method to partition different kinds of charging loads of electric vehicles,the medium-and long-term loads of electric vehicles in the region are determined through Monte Carlo simulation and linear weighting.The simulation results show that as the vehicle usage time increases,the fluctuation degree of the annual load curve continues to increase.Compared with new vehicles,after battery aging,the peak time of weekly electricity load of single vehicle will be earlier,and the peak-to-valley differences of loads will also increase.关键词
电动汽车/充电负荷/预测/电池老化/电池更换/最小成本/蒙特卡洛模拟Key words
electric vehicles/charging load/forecasting/battery aging/battery replacement/minimum cost/Monte Carlo simulation引用本文复制引用
董晓红,孔华志,丁飞,王明深,余晓丹,穆云飞..考虑电池老化的电动汽车中长期充电负荷预测方法[J].电力系统自动化,2024,48(13):109-119,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52107099) （52107099）
河北省自然科学基金资助项目(E2020202131) （E2020202131）
河北省高等学校科学技术研究资助项目(QN2022026). This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52107099),Hebei Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(No.E2020202131)and Higher Education Science and Technology Research Project of Hebei Province(No.QN2022026). （QN2022026）
