农业资源与环境学报2024，Vol.41Issue(4)：769-779,11.DOI:10.13254/j.jare.2023.0387
粮食产销平衡区耕地非粮化时空分异及驱动类型
Spatio-temporal differentiation and types of drivers of non-grain of arable land in food production and marketing balance areas
摘要
Abstract
The study aimed in exploring the spatial and temporal variations in the rate of non-grain of arable land in food production and marketing balance zones and identifying the types of drivers,to provide a theoretical basis for the protection of food security in food production and marketing balance zones.The spatial autocorrelation model was used to analyze the spatial and temporal evolutionary characteristics of arable land non-grain rate in Shanxi Province from 2005 to 2020,the random forest model was used to analyze the influencing factors of the arable land non-grain rate,and the principal component analysis and K-Means clustering method were used to explore the types of arable land non-grain drive in Shanxi Province.The results of the study show that:temporally,the rate of non-grain arable land decreased from 50.21% in 2005 to 40.05% in 2020 with a"W"-shaped fluctuation,exceeding the Shanxi food security threshold by 11.45 percentage points.The rate of non-grain cultivation of arable land varied significantly across space,with a distribution pattern"high in the north-west and low in the south-east".In terms of spatial agglomeration,the global Moran's index of the non-grain rate of arable land in Shanxi Province declined and then increased from 2005 to 2020,and the effect of spatial agglomeration was strengthened with high-high and low-low agglomerations primarily.Land productivity,annual precipitation,and the distance between each district to the provincial capital center played major roles in changes in the rate of non-grain of arable land,showing a negative correlation.In Shanxi Province,there are four types of arable land non-grain drives:resource endowment,transport convenience,agricultural support,and cash crop growth.Identifying the types of arable land non-grain drive in Shanxi Province and developing targeted control measures are critical for the protection of agricultural development and food security.关键词
耕地非粮化/粮食产销平衡区/驱动类型/主成分分析/K-Means聚类Key words
non-grain of arable land/food production and marketing balance area/drive type/principal component analysis/K-Means clustering分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
牛金枫,马艳杰,晋鹏飞,张美萍,陕永杰..粮食产销平衡区耕地非粮化时空分异及驱动类型[J].农业资源与环境学报,2024,41(4):769-779,11.基金项目
2020年度山西省研究生教育改革(指令性)研究课题项目(2020159) Research Project on Postgraduate Education Reform(Directive)in Shanxi Province in 2020(2020159) （指令性）
