粮食产销平衡区耕地非粮化时空分异及驱动类型OA北大核心CSTPCD

The study aimed in exploring the spatial and temporal variations in the rate of non-grain of arable land in food production and marketing balance zones and identifying the types of drivers,to provide a theoretical basis for the protection of food security in food production and marketing balance zones.The spatial autocorrelation model was used to analyze the spatial and temporal evolutionary characteristics of arable land non-grain rate in Shanxi Province from 2005 to 2020,the random forest model was used to analyze the influencing factors of the arable land non-grain rate,and the principal component analysis and K-Means clustering method were used to explore the types of arable land non-grain drive in Shanxi Province.The results of the study show that:temporally,the rate of non-grain arable land decreased from 50.21% in 2005 to 40.05% in 2020 with a"W"-shaped fluctuation,exceeding the Shanxi food security threshold by 11.45 percentage points.The rate of non-grain cultivation of arable land varied significantly across space,with a distribution pattern"high in the north-west and low in the south-east".In terms of spatial agglomeration,the global Moran's index of the non-grain rate of arable land in Shanxi Province declined and then increased from 2005 to 2020,and the effect of spatial agglomeration was strengthened with high-high and low-low agglomerations primarily.Land productivity,annual precipitation,and the distance between each district to the provincial capital center played major roles in changes in the rate of non-grain of arable land,showing a negative correlation.In Shanxi Province,there are four types of arable land non-grain drives:resource endowment,transport convenience,agricultural support,and cash crop growth.Identifying the types of arable land non-grain drive in Shanxi Province and developing targeted control measures are critical for the protection of agricultural development and food security.