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基于SWOT的中缅印度洋通道瑞丽与孟定清水河对比研究OA北大核心CSTPCD

Comparative Study of the Ruili and Mengding Qingshui Rivers in the China-Myanmar Indian Ocean Corridor Based on SWOT

中文摘要英文摘要

瑞丽出境的中缅"人字形"经济走廊(简称"人字形"走廊)与孟定清水河出境的中缅印度洋新通道(简称"新通道")建设与发展上的极大反差引起学界广泛关注.鉴于此,搭建SWOT的国际通道分析理论与框架,对"人字形"走廊与新通道的差异部分(即瑞丽—腊戌与孟定清水河—腊戌)进行SWOT要素阐述和关键影响因素的对比分析,以揭示二者的比较优势与不同时期侧重选择的地理逻辑.研究表明:1)不同时空序列下中缅印度洋通道建设的关键影响因素存在显著差别.历史域上的关键影响因素有明显的"地理决定论意味",以地形、高程、河流、地质等为代表的自然地理环境与特征深刻影响着早期的中缅通道建设;现实域层面的关键影响因素多为"人类主观能动性的发挥程度和科技进步是否促生通道建设"时空压缩",即主观能动性和科技进步等能否缩短通道的建设里程和关键路段建设工期、是否能提升与城市群关联度和完善运输网络体系等;未来域的关键影响因素则是关注通道的"成长"、国家话语支持和战略定位以及服务国家的长效机制等方面,最直接的便是国家对通道的定位、赋能及话语政策支持等.2)瑞丽与孟定清水河作为中缅印度洋通道的中方出境口岸,其选址在不同时期侧重不同地理考量,受到各自S、W、O、T主导要素的裹挟影响与约束.瑞丽("人字形"走廊)为抗争战略调整型,孟定清水河(新通道)为抗争战略进取型.3)总体上孟定清水河至腊戌一线(新通道)相较瑞丽至腊戌一线("人字形"走廊)的优势和潜力较为明显,阻碍和困难相对较小,佐证了"优势在孟"的新通道方案."人字形"走廊与新通道具有明显的互补性特征,传递出双"Y"轴通道设想的科学性与可行性.

The construction of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor(CMEC)out of Ruili and the China-Myanmar Indian Ocean New Corridor(CMIONC)out of Qingshuihe in Mengding has attracted much attention.The great contrast between the construction and development of the CMEC and the CMIONC has raised widespread concern in the academic community.Therefore,we developed a theory and framework of international corridor analysis based on the SWOT(Strengths,Weaknesses,Opportunities,and Threats),and conducted a comparative analysis of SWOT elements and key influencing factors between the CMEC and CMIONC(Ruili-Lashu and Mengding-Qingshuihe-Lashu)to reveal the differences between them and the key influencing factors of the CMIONC.We evaluated the comparative advantages of the CMEC and CMIONC and the geographic logic of focusing on various choices at different times.The study produced several important results:(1)There are significant differences in the key factors influencing the construction of the China-Myanmar Indian Ocean Corridor in different spatial and temporal sequences.The key influencing factors in the historical domain have obvious geographic determinism,and the natural geographic environment and features represented by topography,elevation,rivers,geology,among others.,profoundly influenced the construction of the China-Myanmar corridor in the early period.The key influencing factors in the actual domain are mostly the degree of human initiative and the degree of scientific and technological progress contributing to the construction of the corridor and the extent to which the corridor will be constructed.Whether the progress of science and technology can contribute to the"space-time compression"of the corridor construction is to be determined.Whether the subjective initiative and progress of science and technology can shorten the construction distance of the corridor and the construction period of key sections and whether it can enhance the degree of connection with the urban agglomerations and improve the transport network system should be analyzed.Furthermore,the key influencing factors in the future domain will be the growth and national discourse support of the corridor.These aspects include strategic positioning and long-term mechanisms to serve the country,the most direct national positioning of the channel,empowerment,and discourse policy support,and others.(2)Ruili and Qingshuihe of Mengding,as the Chinese exit ports of the China-Myanmar Indian Ocean Corridor,have focused on different geographic considerations at different times and have been subject to the influences and constraints of the dominant SWOT elements.Ruili(the"herringbone"corridor)is a type of resistance strategy adjustment,and the Mengding Qingshui River(new corridor)is a type of resistance strategy aggressiveness.(3)On the whole,the advantages and potentials of the line from the Mengding Qingshuihe River to Laxun(the new corridor)are more evident than those of the line from Ruili to Laxun("herringbone"corridor),and the obstacles and difficulties are relatively small,which proves that the advantages are in Meng for the new corridor program.The"herringbone"corridor and the new corridor have prominent complementary characteristics,highlighting the scientific soundness and feasibility of the double"Y"axis corridor concept.

李如英;牛福长;胡志丁;赵正贤

中共临沧市委党校,云南 临沧 677000北京师范大学 地理科学学部,北京 100875华东师范大学 地理科学学院,上海 200241云南省地震局,昆明 650224

地理科学

中缅"人字形"经济走廊中缅印度洋新通道SWOT分析地理过程孟定清水河瑞丽

China-Myanmar Economic CorridorChina-Myanmar Indian Ocean New CorridorSWOT analysisgeographic processMengding Qingshui RiverRuili

《热带地理》 2024 (007)

1171-1183 / 13

国家社会科学基金重大项目"大数据时代地缘环境解析的理论与方法跨学科研究"(20&ZD138);国家自然科学基金项目"多元地缘体双层博弈下东北亚地缘环境演变及其驱动机制研究"(42371230);北师大博士生学科交叉基金项目"中缅印度洋新通道建设与缅甸地缘环境变化研究"(Grant BNUXKJC2204)

10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.20230500

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